Tracing Back To The Land "Liupai Tide": Under The Tight Monetary Policy, The Real Estate Enterprises Are Cautious, And May Welcome The Turning Point In The Fourth Quarter

      Open land market announced winter. With the second round of centralized land supply in various parts of the country, the "chill" is the first impression given to the industry by the results of land supply from many cities, and large-scale "lost auction" is also emerging.

On September 26 and 27, Guangzhou carried out the second round of centralized land supply transfer. In this round of land auction, a total of 48 plots were transferred, and 23 plots were finally transferred successfully, with a total transaction price of 56.937 billion yuan, and 25 auction cases were sold out, with a premium rate of only 1.5%.

More than half of the land is sold in the first tier cities, which is a rare situation. Just a few months ago, the heat of the first round of centralized land supply in Guangzhou was still very high. At that time, the situation that many plots touched the ceiling price was still vivid. Now, the mood of real estate enterprises has been greatly reversed, which further increases the uncertainty of the real estate market in the future.

This is the efforts made by various localities to calm down the speculation in the property market under the keynote of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices and stabilizing expectations", and now the results are beginning to show.

Tracing back to the current round of land market's "flow auction tide", the most basic logic still lies in that, after the financial side of the normative constraints on real estate enterprises, as a capital intensive industry, the cash flow of real estate enterprises has been impacted. In order to ensure that they can cross the current small cycle, real estate companies have to reduce investment, which evolved into a "flow auction tide".

But the most difficult moment may be over. The central bank monetary policy committee's regular meeting in the third quarter of 2021 held on September 24 clearly pointed out that it is necessary to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers. A number of scholars and practitioners told the 21st century economic report that the capital of real estate enterprises in the fourth quarter may have marginal relaxation, "it is not too pessimistic, the mortgage loan should be restored in the future, the cash of enterprises will be better, and the pressure will be less."

This is the efforts made by various localities to calm down the speculation in the property market under the keynote of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices and stabilizing expectations", and now the results are beginning to show. IC photo

Vanke was also absent

This is a round of land "auction tide" sweeping across many cities. According to kerrui's statistics, since the opening of the second round of centralized land supply tide in key cities at the end of August, the floating auction rate has been running at a high level. In the past week, this situation has not changed, and the overall flow rate is still as high as 25%.

There are many cities with the first round of centralized land supply. Taking Chongqing as an example, the second round of centralized soil patting has dropped to "freezing point". According to the public data, 42 residential land parcels were hung out in Chongqing in the second round of centralized land supply, 9 of which were terminated in advance. Among the remaining 33 parcels, 5 were sold out, and only 28 were completed. The auction rate (including the land plots suspended from transfer) was as high as 33%, which was in sharp contrast to the zero auction in the first round.

The auction rate is at a high level, and the enterprises taking the land are mainly state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises. The figure of private enterprises is very rare, even for real estate enterprises with excellent financial indicators and outstanding operation ability.

CITIC Securities Analysts Chen Cong and Zhang Guoguo pointed out in a research paper that through the analysis of the structure of land acquisition enterprises, it can be found that many land acquisition enterprises are local state-owned enterprises. Among them, Chongqing, Suzhou and Nanjing have the highest proportion of land acquisition, accounting for 49%, 45% and 41% of the total land transactions respectively. If the non local state-owned enterprises are included in the statistics, The total proportion of state-owned enterprises in sample cities is close to 60%.

"The situation of local state-owned enterprises is relatively special. There are some individuals closely related to the land supply side, which can play a semi market-oriented land holding role when the land transfer is obviously cold. When the proportion of local state-owned enterprises taking land is too high, it means that the land market is indeed cool." Chen Cong and Zhang Guoguo think.

This is indeed a noteworthy situation. If from the investment action of individual leading real estate enterprises, the relatively negative attitude of real estate enterprises to the land market will be clearer. Taking Vanke as an example, it almost did not participate in the second round of centralized land supply. Even in Shenzhen, a relatively hot base, Vanke also chose to be absent. Vanke's financial indicators are not significantly higher than those of the leading group, but the prudent choice also represents another attitude of the leading and stable real estate enterprises.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, analyzed the 21st century economic reporter that when the market is relatively down, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises are more responsible for maintaining the market, and they should bear a greater responsibility. Therefore, it is reasonable for central enterprises and state-owned enterprises to participate more.

When is the turn around time?

The situation of "flow auction tide" is the direct result of the pressure on the current general capital of real estate enterprises. At present, the capital pressure faced by real estate enterprises is two-way. There are not only three red lines and 40% investment and sales ratio constraints, but also a direct impact on their cash flow.

The common situation faced by many real estate enterprises is that the sales are flat, the payment is not ideal, and the cash flow is under certain pressure.

According to the statistics of CITIC Securities, in August 2021, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by 4% and 15.6% respectively compared with the same period in 2019 and 2020, while the sales volume increased by 3.3% and decreased by 18.7% respectively. According to Xitai data, in August this year, 106 of China's 315 sample cities experienced a year-on-year decline in house prices, and 189 cities showed a month on month decline.

A person from a leading real estate company told the 21st century economic report that "it is more and more tight to see the quality of developers for first-hand housing loans, which are basically given for two to four months."

According to the 21st century economic report, the reporter from Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Dongguan and other places to deal with the information of the bank loan business, at present, most of the bank's loan business is in a long cycle. A person from Dongguan's four major industries said, "we can do it. You can't think about it. Come back in a year."

And a person from a commercial bank in Shenzhen also said, "our bank basically doesn't accept new ones now. Don't think about it this year."

A person from the financial department of the headquarters of top5 real estate enterprises told the 21st century economic report that the payback cycle has become longer. "The capital chain is very tight, and the upstream and downstream enterprises have no enthusiasm. Now most of the financing channels have been stopped or regulated. Before, private placement and short-term demolition can also be used. Now the cost is too high, these methods no longer exist."

However, the industry generally believes that the situation encountered by real estate enterprises is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. An important signal is that the third quarter regular meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee clearly proposed that we should safeguard the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.

An analyst who did not want to be named said in an interview with the 21st century economic report, "the fourth quarter housing loan may be more positive. If the capital is not so tight, the cash flow of real estate enterprises will be better, more normal, and the pressure will be less."