Shanghai Property Market: First Hand House "Squeeze Toothpaste" Online Sign And Second-Hand House "Cliff Type" Transaction

"I just got the contract today, but I haven't signed it online yet." on September 15, Lin Xi (pseudonym) took a first-hand house purchase contract from the sales hand, with excitement and worry on his face. She told her friends who went to the real estate market that she got one of the third batch of residential buildings in Shanghai in July and successfully bought a house. However, due to the strict management and control of Shanghai's first-hand Housing online, it was only two months later that Lin Xi got the purchase contract and prepared to sign online.

Correspondingly, Shanghai's second-hand housing market has entered a cliff like decline since the launch of the "three price on low" bank mortgage policy in August. According to Tongce Research Institute data, Shanghai's newly built commercial residential transaction area in August was 908300 square meters, down 8% year-on-year; The average transaction price was 57183 yuan / m2, down 2% year on year; Second hand residential transactions of 1.503 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 25.12%, the average transaction price of 38207 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 7.45%.

"Compared with previous years, the market is really different," said Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Zhongyuan Real estate market in Shanghai; Second hand housing in the "three prices on the low" after the decline in transactions, for example, August only 17000 sets, compared with the previous monthly average of 23000 sets, directly less than 6000 sets of turnover.

Second hand housing volume shrinks and prices fall

Shanghai Zhongyuan Real estate data showed that Shanghai's second-hand houses sold 18000 units in August, down 24% month on month and 40% year-on-year, and the number of new second-hand houses listed also decreased. In addition, in August, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Shanghai fell for the first time since this year, with a month on month decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 5%.

Since July, Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions have declined for two months. At present, it is a trend of volume reduction and price decline, and the market liquidity is obviously weakened. Based on the analysis of second-hand intermediary agencies, the market changes are mainly affected by three aspects: first, because the current round of prices is a short-term jump, most of the compensation funds for demolition and relocation entered the second-hand housing market in the first half of the year; Secondly, this year, Shanghai's efforts to control second-hand housing are increasing. There are targeted restrictions from landlords on the supply side to intermediaries at the circulation end, and then to financial institutions providing funds. For example, the verification price has a great impact on the second-hand housing market expectations, although it only affects the Internet display on the surface, but in fact effectively reduces the price expectations of buyers. Verification price directly leads to a large number of second-hand housing market listing off the shelf, and the decrease of supply leads to the decline of transaction; Finally, the "three prices are low" has affected the down payment ratio and loan ratio, reduced the ability to pay, and some buyers passively reduced their budgets. At present, the amount of housing mortgage loan is tight, and the loan cycle of banks has been extended to 4-6 months. A large number of queuing houses have been accumulated in both the first and second-hand houses.

Song Hongwei, research director of Tongce Research Institute, analyzes that Shanghai's first-hand and second-hand linkage is relatively obvious. Many replacement demands are to sell second-hand houses and then buy new ones. As the second-hand houses can't be sold, new houses can't be bought, which also affects the new housing market. With the continuous regulation and control, it is expected that the future Shanghai housing market will still show a downward trend, especially the decline of the second-hand housing market will exceed that of the new housing market.

At the beginning of September, a lot of intermediary personnel have received a number of landlord's urgent sale of housing, the price reduction range from hundreds of thousands to millions.

First hand house transaction cycle is slow

In the first week of September, 524 first-hand houses were sold in Shanghai; In the second week, 291 sets of trading volume were closed. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate in Shanghai, the transaction area of new commercial residential buildings was 182000 square meters last week (8.30-9.5).

"Under normal circumstances, it should be more than 180000 square meters, close to 200000 square meters or even a little more." Lu Wenxi pointed out that in addition to the decline in transactions, the pace of first-hand house transactions slowed down significantly. Since September, there has been only one new opening in Shanghai, and several are still in the stage of recognition. In the past, the first-hand housing market basically began to accelerate in September to prepare for the "golden nine" opening. Such as this year's opening, the volume will certainly not be able to meet. The number of second-hand housing has also come down, consumers' wait-and-see mood is very obvious, in September, basically did not see a contract. Not only Lu Wenxi, but also many intermediaries in Shanghai believe that Shanghai's "gold nine" and "gold" will not rise this year. What about "silver ten"? We can only hope that all the new stocks can be opened, but listing does not mean that the market can be opened immediately. We should queue up first and have a sequence.

Market wait-and-see sentiment and bank lending cycle lengthened, leading to a significant slowdown in the pace of the first-hand property market.

Lin Xi's housing experience also shows that Shanghai is now strictly controlling the pace of new sales and bank lending. "Control the rhythm, control the flow, control the mood." Lu Wenxi pointed out that because of the centralized supply of housing this year, the rhythm of the whole property market has been completely disrupted. It is not necessarily that the off-season will be light, and the peak season will not necessarily be prosperous; First hand room control online signing, the volume of trading is not all normal flow, most people in the industry are not sure whether the market is really bad or the result of regulation, but the flow control is certain.

Most of the intermediary's consultation with clients indicates that it is in the adjustment stage, but the market will recover soon.

In order to highlight fairness, Shanghai has recently increased the shortlist ratio of first-hand housing projects. Yang Yulei, chief analyst of Shanghai Chain Family Research Institute, points out that this does not mean the relaxation of regulation. Most of the projects that relax the number of shortlisted candidates are popular projects. It is basically certain that there will be a large number of people to subscribe. At this time, blindly going to the card recognition rate is not conducive to maintaining the benign operation of the market, on the contrary, it may backfire, leading to the situation of difficult subscription and housing purchase, thus violating the original intention of the lottery policy of new houses.

In addition, the shortlisted space of targeted relaxation also reflects the changes of the main contradictions in the current market. The main contradiction in the current market has been transformed from the contradiction that too many people buy houses before the lottery policy is issued, which leads to the contradiction that the winning rate is too low to buy a house, and the contradiction that the score is frequently set at a new high level, which leads to the contradiction that it is too difficult for the shortlisted to buy a house.

For buyers in the market, the adjustment of Shanghai's first-hand housing will focus on easing the point competition of popular projects, and also help to relieve the pressure of long-standing purchase demand due to supply suspension.

In the face of such a situation, this year I am afraid to see the total amount of transactions at the end of the year to give the property market a qualitative analysis. As Lu Wenxi said, the recent shortage of first-hand housing supply has made it more difficult for Shanghai's "golden nine" property market to start. Although there is a rebound, the "cold and hot" line with a turnover of less than 200000 square meters indicates that even if the market wants to create a "golden nine" trading atmosphere under the effect of continuous policy, the willingness of buyers to enter the market may not be as high as that in the early stage.

"The first-hand house is still stable, including several sets of funds now. It is said that the point system will be triggered again, which indicates that the market demand is still stable and there is no big problem." Lu Wenxi believes that the short-term transaction of Shanghai's first-hand house may also present a shock pattern.

More people from real estate enterprises pointed out that the situation of Shanghai's property market should last at least to the first quarter of next year.