Crazy Lithium Battery Materials: Can The Hype Continue?

Jiangxi Shilong Industrial Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Shilong industry) is very popular recently.

When the company was deeply involved in the internal governance storm of "two boards of directors and two directors", its share price unexpectedly rose and closed for many days. On September 13, Shilong shares closed at 12.45 yuan per share, the fifth trading limit. It seems that the secondary market does not care who is the chairman of Shilong.

The reason for the stock price change of Shilong is that the secondary market has deeply branded the concept stock halo of lithium battery raw materials. 21st century economic report reporter noted that the company's products such as thionyl chloride are key materials for lithium battery electrolyte. Even if the related business only accounted for 2.68% of the main business income in the first half of the year, it did not affect the fund pursuit, and even attracted the attention of Shenzhen stock exchange for a time.

The stock price of Shilong industry is "hot", which is a side reflection of the price rise of hot-fried lithium battery industry chain products in the capital market. On September 13, the latest data released by Shanghai Steel Association showed that the prices of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and other lithium battery materials continued to rise. On the same day, the wind lithium battery index (884039. WI) turned red again. As of September 13, the index closed at 11095.85, up nearly 90% this year.

The gap that cannot be blocked

After the latest round of price increases, the price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate has reached 142000 yuan / ton to 143000 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the year, the price of the material has increased by 173%.

According to the statistics of Shanghai Iron and Steel Association, the 21st century economic report found that the price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate rose sharply in the first quarter of this year, and then stabilized in the second quarter, even slightly reduced. In August, the rising channel of the material price opened again. Among them, the price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate has increased by 61% in a month since August.

Compared with lithium carbonate, the price trend of lithium hydroxide is not inferior. According to the data of Shanghai Iron and Steel Association, the latest price of the material may reach 142500 yuan / ton to 143000 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of more than 190% since this year.

The 21st century economic reporter has noticed that the price of lithium hydroxide has been "singing all the way" this year, which is different from the stabilization and correction of lithium carbonate price. In more than a month since the beginning of August, the price of the material has risen sharply, reaching 44%.

Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are commonly used as cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries. According to different applications, the common ternary cathode materials tend to use lithium carbonate as lithium source, while the high nickel ternary cathode materials are more suitable for lithium hydroxide. In the market, the price of lithium carbonate is generally slightly lower than that of lithium hydroxide.

In terms of production cost, there is no big difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. "Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide can be prepared by spodumene. The difference lies in the process route and production equipment, but the cost is almost the same." an industry source told the 21st century economic report that if the salt lake brine is used to prepare lithium hydroxide, the cost will be relatively high.

However, whether it is lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, the market is difficult to "plug" the supply and demand gap behind the continued high price.

Limited supply, corresponding to huge demand, is the core reason for the price rise of lithium battery materials in China. "On the supply side, the supply of lithium concentrate is tight, and the price of spodumene is running at a high level; on the demand side, the ternary materials of downstream manufacturers and lithium iron phosphate are basically in the state of full production and full sales, driving the demand for lithium products to further increase." Xie Nan, an analyst with China Thailand securities, said in the research report.

The 21st century economic reporter has learned that, taking lithium carbonate as an example, since August this year, the gap between supply and demand of lithium carbonate in China has been about 14%, leading to the further expansion of the market pattern of short supply. The market of lithium hydroxide is relatively stable, which is the main reason why the price rise of lithium hydroxide is lower than that of lithium carbonate since August.

However, it is undeniable that the huge demand in the downstream does put more pressure on the supply side.

According to the statistics released by China Automobile Industry Association on September 10, China's new energy vehicle production and sales volume in August were 309000 and 321000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 8.8% and 18.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8 times, setting a new record. So far, from January to August this year, the cumulative production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China have reached 1.813 million and 1.799 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased to about 11%. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased to 17.8% in August.

The booming new energy vehicle market has rapidly driven the enthusiasm of lithium battery industry chain. According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in August, China's power battery output totaled 19.5gwh, up 161.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month on month. Among them, the output of ternary battery was 8.4gwh, accounting for 42.9% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 91.5%; The output of LiFePO4 battery was 11.1gwh, accounting for 56.9% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 268.2%.

According to industry organizations, after entering September, there is no obvious increase in short-term supply of lithium carbonate, and the high price of lithium battery materials is expected to be strongly supported under high demand.

For the concept plate of lithium battery, high valuation becomes a risk factor that can not be ignored- Visual China

"Unstoppable" expansion tide

The pressure of lithium battery material supply also comes from the expected expansion of power battery enterprises.

According to incomplete statistics of industry organizations, in August this year, several companies led by Ningde Times announced the expansion of power battery production projects, with a total investment of more than 124.8 billion yuan.

On August 12, the 10 billion fixed increase of Ningde era, a leading power battery enterprise, became a hot topic in the capital market. According to the announcement, the company plans to issue shares to specific objects, with a fund-raising of no more than 58.2 billion yuan for Fuding era lithium-ion battery production base, Guangdong Ruiqing era lithium-ion battery production, Jiangsu times power and energy storage lithium-ion battery R & D and production, Ningde times Huxi lithium-ion battery expansion project (phase II). In addition, the company disclosed in the feasibility analysis report that the project invested by the fund-raising can add a total of 137gwh of lithium battery annual capacity for Ningde era. It is worth mentioning that many institutions estimate that in the first half of this year, the annual capacity of Ningde era's lithium battery is 131gwh, and the nominal capacity is expected to exceed 200gwh by the end of this year.

In fact, only in August this year, many companies invested heavily in power batteries. On August 9, Xinwangda agreed to invest in the construction of Xinwangda Nanchang power battery production base project in Nanchang Economic Development Zone, with a total investment of about 20 billion yuan; On August 10, AVIC lithium announced that it had signed an investment agreement with Hefei to build a new power battery and energy storage battery industrial base with an annual capacity of 50gwh, with a total investment of 24.8 billion yuan; On August 29, Funeng technology announced that it had signed an investment cooperation agreement with the Management Committee of Anhui Wuhu Sanshan Economic Development Zone, planning to build a new energy battery project with an annual output of 24gwh, with an investment amount of more than 10 billion yuan.

However, the substantial expansion of power battery capacity is bound to cause further tightening of upstream material supply. As a result, many battery enterprises have also joined the competition for lithium battery materials. Ningde times, GuoXuan high tech and Yiwei lithium energy have extended their tentacles to the upstream.

Since this year, Yiwei lithium energy has been deployed frequently in the upstream. On the one hand, the company has successively established joint ventures with German nano and Bertrand, respectively distributing lithium iron phosphate cathode and high nickel ternary cathode; On the other hand, it also locked in lithium battery materials by taking a stake in Huayou cobalt industry. In addition, in July this year, Yiwei lithium energy successively announced that it had invested 140 million yuan and 110 million yuan respectively to acquire 28.125% equity of Kunlun lithium industry and 5% equity of Dahua Chemical Industry, further improving the layout of lithium battery supply chain.

According to the forecast of Kaiyuan securities, the situation of tight supply and demand in the global lithium industry from 2021 to 2022 is difficult to change. Under the rigid gap, lithium mines are easy to rise but difficult to fall. As a result, GuoXuan's actions are more direct. In March this year, GuoXuan high tech signed an investment cooperation agreement with Yichun Municipal government, and the two sides reached a consensus on the establishment of a joint venture mining company and the implementation of industrial park projects. It is reported that GuoXuan high tech will invest in lithium battery new energy project in Yichun, mainly engaged in mine resource development, lithium carbonate extraction, lithium battery R & D and manufacturing, and energy storage system development. It is clear that the company will direct its own extraction of lithium carbonate through this investment.

However, although the current lithium battery industry chain price rising tide, the industry boom. But whether its hype can be sustained or not, the market opinion is divergent.

For lithium battery concept plate, high valuation has become a risk factor that can not be ignored. As of September 13, the dynamic P / E ratio of wind lithium battery index was 99.9 times.