China Cotton Association: The Area Of Cotton Planting Intention Will Decline In 2024

In December 2023, China Cotton Association conducted the first survey of cotton planting intentions in 2024 among 2041 designated farmers in 10 provinces and cities and Xinjiang Autonomous Region. The survey results show that in 2024, the intended area of cotton planting in China will be 40881000 mu, down 1.5% year on year, including 1.7% in Xinjiang, 2.2% in the Yangtze River basin, and 3.3% in the Yellow River basin. In 2023, the national cotton selling price will rise, and most of the cotton farmers' planting intentions in the new year will remain unchanged. In Xinjiang, due to the support of the target price policy, more than 90% of the cotton farmers' intended area is the same as last year, and half of the mainland's intended area is the same.

Among the cotton farmers surveyed nationwide, 69.3% were flat households, and 20.5% were wandering households. This is mainly because the sales of cotton in the mainland have not yet ended, the cotton farmers' intention to plant cotton is not clear, and the number of reduced and increased households are basically flat, accounting for 5.2% and 5% respectively.

The intended cotton planting area of Xinjiang cotton region in 2024 will be 36.635 million mu, down 1.7% year on year. The main reason for the decrease in the area of cotton planting intention is that some regions have reduced the area of cotton planting, increased the area of crops such as grain and oil crops, and a small number of cotton farmers chose to reduce cotton planting due to the increase in cotton planting costs. The target price policy in Xinjiang remained stable, and the mechanization of cotton planting was high. More than 90% of farmers still chose to plant cotton. Among the surveyed households, 91.8% were the same as last year's area, 3.8% were prepared to reduce the area, and 1.5% were prepared to increase the area; At present, 2.9% of them are still hesitating.

The area of cotton planting intention in the Yangtze River basin is 1.72 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. About half of the surveyed households have unclear cotton planting intention, among which the intention of Hunan Province is wandering, and the decrease mainly occurs in Hubei Province. 4.9% of the surveyed households in the basin plan to reduce the area; 6.7% planned to increase the area, 38.7% of which was the same as last year; 49.7% of them stayed and waited.

In the Yellow River Basin, the cotton selling price in 2023 will be basically maintained at about 8 yuan/kg, higher than that in 2022. Cotton farmers have a high enthusiasm for cotton planting. The intended area for cotton planting is 2.299 million mu, an increase of 3.3% year on year. Among them, most cotton farmers in the southwest of Shandong Province said they would increase the cotton planting area because other crops could not be planted in the saline alkali land. 7.5% of the households surveyed in the basin plan to reduce the area; 9.4% prepared to increase the area; 58.3% kept the same area as last year; 24.8% of those who hesitated.