Cottonseed: Increase In Supply And Continuous Decline In Price

In the last two weeks (November 20, 2023 to December 3, 2023), the downstream demand was poor, the price of cotton oil and cotton meal fell mainly, the operating losses of oil cotton plants increased, the market operating rate declined, some manufacturers stopped collecting and hedging, the trading volume of cotton seeds was limited, and the oil cotton was in a situation of low peak season.

　　 Cottonseed: increase in supply and continuous decline in price

In the last two weeks, the futures lint fluctuated at a low level, and the spot price fell mainly. A small number of ginning plants in the mainland purchase and process, so the demand for lint is flat. The processing volume of Xinjiang seed cotton increases, and the supply of new cottonseed increases. As the cotton oil, cottonseed meal and cotton linter among the cotton by-products declined to varying degrees, the oil cotton factory continued to lose money, the operating rate declined, the enthusiasm for cottonseed procurement was not high, the turnover of cottonseed was small, and the price of cottonseed fell accordingly. In the future, we will pay close attention to the market trend of futures lint, soybean oil and soybean meal, and cottonseed prices may continue to adjust.

　　 Cotton oil: poor downstream demand, oil price temporarily difficult to stabilize

In the last two weeks, the domestic soybean oil futures market was still in an overall downward trend. The closing price of CY2401 main contract on Friday was 8106 yuan/ton, down 204 yuan/ton from the closing price on the last trading day of the previous two weekends. Soybean oil futures and spot prices fell, dragging down the cotton oil market. The price of cottonseed is weak and falling, but the cost is still at a high level. The operating rate of oil cotton plants is declining, and the cottonseed oil still has the ability to hold the price, but the downstream demand is poor, so the manufacturer reduces the quotation for shipment. Referring to the soybean oil futures and spot market, it is difficult to stabilize the cotton oil market in the future.

　　 Cotton meal: continuous loss in processing due to poor market demand

In the last two weeks, cotton meal futures fell in shock, and the spot market adjusted accordingly. The problem of swine fever in the domestic breeding industry has become more serious. The fish breeding industry has stopped feeding fish feed. The downstream demand is poor, and the market negative factors are leading to suppress the cotton meal market. The price of cottonseed continued to fall, but the cost of raw materials was high. The oil cotton factory continued to lose money in processing, the operating rate declined, and the cottonseed meal inventory was limited. The manufacturer still had a price mentality. Due to the low cost performance of cotton meal and soybean meal, the demand for cotton meal is poor, which limits the market of cotton meal. According to the current supply and demand situation, the quotation of cotton meal is still difficult to stop falling. Referring to the soybean meal futures and spot market, it is difficult to stabilize the price of cotton meal in the future.

Cotton linter: a small amount of market turnover is weak or will continue

In the last two weeks, the external negative factors continued, and the cottonseed price continued to fall. Although the supply of cotton linter was limited, the downstream chemical fiber plants and refined cotton plants bought as needed, with a small number of market transactions, dragging down the development of cotton linter market. In order to reduce the cost of products occupying funds, oil cotton plants around the country transferred cotton linter quotations for shipment. The future market of cotton linter is difficult to improve due to poor demand.