Analysis Of The Uncertainty Of US Cotton Planting Intention On The Future Market

The supply chain seems to be easing From March 11 to March 17, the United States signed 69763 tons of Upland Cotton in 2021 / 22 (including 73050 tons signed and 3289 tons cancelled in the early period), 17% less than the previous week and 7% lower than the average in recent four weeks; Shipment of 100403 tons of Upland Cotton in 2021 / 22, increased by 36% compared with the previous week, and increased by 29% on average over the recent four weeks.

With the outbreak of domestic epidemic, Hong Kong has broken the defense, which is not conducive to travel and consumption. This round of domestic work resumption progress is slower than in previous years. At present, overseas mills are also losing money. India starts to decline, while domestic cotton yarn continues to suffer losses. The basis difference of Zheng cotton is slightly higher than the normal range. The import profit drops to a five-year low due to the strong external and weak internal. It is expected that the internal and external price gap will further decrease. Overseas basis is still higher than the normal level, the global cotton upstream price.

There is a phenomenon of reduced price of imported cotton today. The follow-up trend of Zheng cotton also needs to pay attention to the process of replenishment of domestic middle and lower reaches and orders of "gold, silver and four" in peak season. American cotton high shock, not point price contract transactions were once again suppressed, the upper reaches of the price phenomenon, downstream wait-and-see mood increased.

Russia and Ukraine decided to hold a partial cease-fire, and the bulk commodities fell back. We focused on the US planting intention report on March 31, and it is expected that the willingness to expand planting will be stronger.