Volume Falls And Prices Are Hard To Rise; Property Market Enters "Deceleration" Channel In July

After several months of "high-speed running", the real estate market finally shows signs of "slowing down".

The National Bureau of statistics released the relevant data of the real estate market in July on August 16, in which the changes of two indicators are worthy of attention. In July this year, 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow the month on month increase in house prices. Among them, house prices in the first, second and third tier cities have all narrowed, which is the first time since this year. In July, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing decreased year on year, which is also the first time this year.

This situation shows that after the continuous pressure of regulatory policies, the trend of volume and price in the real estate market tends to be moderate.

Some institutions believe that this may become an important turning point in the property market this year. As the regulation and control policies of the real estate market have been fully implemented on the supply side of land and finance, the scope of regulation and control has also extended to the whole chain of second-hand housing, leasing, urban renewal, property management, etc. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the market heat is expected to fall further, and it is difficult to maintain a significant rise in house prices.

One month trading volume fell for the first time in the year

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 1016.48 million square meters, an increase of 21.5% over the same period of last year; The sales volume of commercial housing was 10643 billion yuan, an increase of 30.7%.

Since the beginning of this year, the credit policy has been relaxed for a time, and the prices of new and second-hand houses in some regions have been "inverted", which has stimulated the release of a large number of demand, and also kept the property market at a high level. Among them, the monthly transaction volume from March to June is always higher than that of the same period of last year, and the transaction volume of this year's property market continues to maintain the highest level in the same period of history.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, pointed out that due to various reasons such as the epidemic situation, the overseas investment of residents has decreased sharply, and the return of funds has further intensified the warming of the market.

But by July, that momentum began to be contained. In July, the national commercial housing sales area was 130.13 million square meters, down 41.5% from June; Compared with the same period last year, there was also a decrease of 7%, and the sales of commercial housing in July was also lower than that in the same period last year. This is also the first time that the index has fallen this year.

The decline in trading volume at the same time, the rise in house prices is also narrowing. In the 70 large and medium-sized cities monitored by the National Bureau of statistics, the number of cities with rising house prices has decreased and the number of cities with house prices falling has increased, which is a significant feature in the past two months. Among them, in July, the prices of new houses in 16 cities decreased month on month, and the prices of second-hand houses in 26 cities declined month on month, with the largest number in the year.

In terms of city energy level, the month on month increase of new and second-hand housing prices in the first, second and third tier cities fell back, with the largest drop in the first tier cities.

Compared with the same period last year, the price growth of these cities is mainly flat and falling.

In July, the real estate market showed a "steady decline in volume" change, mainly due to the tightening of credit policy and the "patching" of demand side policy. On the one hand, under the management of real estate loan concentration, more and more banks have raised mortgage interest rates and extended the lending cycle; On the other hand, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other first and second tier cities have tightened regulation and made up loopholes in housing donation, house purchase and sales restriction. Under the financial tightening and administrative control, both supply and demand expectations are affected, and buyers are more rational and cautious in entering the market, and the expectation of rising house prices is weakened.

Among them, the adjustment range of second-hand house price exceeds that of new house, which, to a certain extent, solves the panic caused by the price inversion. In July, Shanghai implemented the second-hand housing price verification, Xi'an, Shaoxing, Wuxi and other cities issued second-hand housing guidance prices, and Chengdu announced the second batch of second-hand housing guide price districts... These policies are conducive to the stability of second-hand housing prices.

In addition, it is worth noting that the Ministry of housing and urban rural development interviewed Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Jinhua, Quanzhou, Huizhou and other five cities on July 29, and included them in the list of key cities for real estate market monitoring, indicating that "regulation and control has penetrated into the third and fourth tier cities".

The power of regulation and control remains unchanged

As a matter of fact, July's "steady decline in volume and price" is also the result of the superposition of the functions of various property market regulation policies since the first half of the year. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate, from January to July this year, regulatory authorities at all levels issued 352 real estate regulatory policies, with an average of more than one policy issued every day.

The strength and scope of these policies are unprecedented. In terms of regulation and control measures, the regulatory authorities restrain the demand side with the help of purchase restriction and loan restriction, and at the same time increase the supply side reform of land and finance; In the scope of regulation and control, from the traditional field of real estate development and investment, it gradually extends to the chain of second-hand housing, leasing, urban renewal, and even property management.

According to official data, in addition to changes in volume and price, a number of real estate indicators have declined. The real estate development investment in July was 1271.6 billion yuan, down 28% month on month; From January to July this year, the accumulated area of new housing construction in China turned negative for the first time, and the new construction area in a single month decreased for four consecutive months; Over the same period, the area of land taken by real estate enterprises and the transaction amount of land payment both decreased.

In the first seven months of this year, the funds in place reached 11897 billion yuan, an increase of 18.2% over the same period of last year, and the growth rate dropped for five consecutive months. Among them, compared with the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of deposit, advance payment and personal mortgage loan decreased by 48% and 33% respectively, indicating the significant effect of credit tightening.

In July, the real estate development boom index was 100.98, falling for five consecutive months.

July is usually the semi annual summary and adjustment node of economic policies, and real estate policies are often strengthened or adjusted at this time.

In July this year, the real estate market policy statements from the regulatory level were unprecedented frequent. On July 13, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the national development and Reform Commission and other eight ministries and commissions issued the "notice on continuous regulation and regulation of real estate market order" to comprehensively rectify the real estate market order; On July 22, a teleconference was held to speed up the development of affordable rental housing and further improve the regulation and control of the real estate market, emphasizing "no speculation in real estate" and "three stabilities" (stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices and stabilizing expectations), and not taking real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy; On July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, which once again stressed "no speculation on housing and housing" and "three stability".

These statements reinforce the fundamentals of the policy. Most analysts believe that the goal of the regulation policy will remain unchanged and the strength will not be loosened. In the third quarter of this year, the market rate will probably continue to cool down, and the trading volume may continue to decline.

Xu Xiaole believes that house prices will continue to stabilize in the future. On the one hand, the effect of the existing policies will continue to be released under the control of "no speculation of housing and housing" and stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations. Cities with market fluctuations will be quickly suppressed by new regulatory means. On the other hand, the pricing and bidding rules for the second and third batch of centralized land supply will be further optimized to stabilize market expectations. In addition, the supply of new housing market increased seasonally in the second half of the year, and the contradiction between supply and demand in key cities eased, which also helped to stabilize the house price.

"The real estate market has experienced the peak after the epidemic and gradually began to" abate the fever ". From the perspective of market trend, the real estate market will gradually stabilize in 2021." Zhang Dawei said.