The Oil Price Plummeted After The Attack Of Delta; The Risk Of Spandex Collapse Increased Greatly; A Battle Of Limiting Production And Protecting Price Is About To Attack Polyester Market!

The joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council recently held a press conference to introduce the situation of further strengthening epidemic prevention and control.

The current round of epidemic has affected 17 provinces, with 144 medium and high-risk areas in China, the most since the normalization of prevention and control.

Delta variant virus is coming, and the epidemic situation is urgent all over the world. According to worldomers data, more than 200 million new coronal pneumonia cases have been confirmed worldwide. More than 36 million people have been diagnosed in the United States, 31.77 million in India and 20 million in Brazil. In terms of death cases, more than 630000 people died in the United States, nearly 560000 in Brazil, more than 420000 in India and more than 240000 in Mexico.

Data show that the United States, India, Iran, Turkey and Russia are the five countries with the largest number of new confirmed cases. Indonesia, Russia, India, Iran and the United States are the five countries with the largest number of new deaths.

With the rapid spread of delta variant virus and the slow progress of vaccination, Southeast Asia has become one of the world's new "worst hit areas". In the past week, the number of confirmed cases in Southeast Asia has increased by 41%, with more than 500000 new cases and 39% increase in deaths, making it the fastest growing region in the world.

The rapid spread of delta mutant virus threatens oil demand and oil prices plummet

On the first working day of August, the international oil price fell sharply to stop the "three consecutive positive". The deepest drop of WTI in September was 4.6%, and finally closed at 71.49 USD / barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell 4.1% to 72.32 U.S. dollars on the same day, falling below 73, 74 and 75 U.S. dollars, the biggest drop in nearly two weeks.

Affected by the spread of delta mutant strain, travel restriction measures have been taken again in many places around the world. In addition, export data of many countries show signs of weakness. Meanwhile, OPEC + has also increased supply this month. All of these jointly promote the sharp drop of oil price this round!

As the king of commodities, the fluctuation of crude oil price is bound to affect the price trend of chemicals. The deep fall in international crude oil prices also dragged down the prices of downstream chemical commodities. On August 4, the decline of crude oil futures ranked first in domestic futures market. As of 9:00 a.m. on the same day, the main contracts of fuel oil and Lu futures fell by more than 2%, while the main contracts of 13 varieties including LPG, crude oil, staple fiber, rapeseed meal and soybean No.2 were all down more than 1%. The chemical market also showed a downward trend, and some products have been declining for many days, and the prices are going down.

This week, PTA main contract price fell back after hitting a record high in the intraday trading on Monday. The price of PTA contract continued to decline on the previous day on Tuesday, with a drop of 3.42%.

In the same way, under the situation that the epidemic has hit the market, many enterprises are worried that the rising price of raw materials market, especially spandex, is also very dangerous for the later collapse. Therefore, for raw material procurement, manufacturers tend to be more cautious in the future, and the purchase intention is not strong. Under the influence of repeated epidemic situation, the mentality of the terminal market is under pressure, and the intention of follow-up orders is not clear. Polyester products such as polyester filament are afraid to experience a wave of callback.

Some polyester products are oversold, and the epidemic situation is the biggest negative factor at present

According to the survey of industry organizations, textile and clothing consumption at home and abroad continue to recover this year. In the second half of the polyester peak season, there are orders at present, but the profit is lower than that in the previous peak season. Especially under the influence of the current epidemic situation, the tightening of epidemic prevention policy and the limitation of logistics have obviously suppressed the demand for PTA. In addition, due to the slow pace of crude oil import quota issuance, limited supply of raw material PX and unstable operation of PTA new unit.

From the survey, some polyester factories are not optimistic about the future market, and some polyester products are oversold. The production of texturing enterprises continued to operate at full load, and the processing profit continued to increase compared with last month. Warp knitting enterprises are also full load, start to produce more autumn and winter fabrics, raw material preparation warehouse in about 2 weeks; But the order is general, product delivery is not smooth, resulting in grey cloth inventory again accumulated, mostly in 2 months. Although there is a peak season forecast in the second half of the year, the overall profit of the industrial chain terminal is flat, and the enthusiasm of enterprises for stock preparation is limited. Therefore, PTA price periodic high after the cause of downstream polyester plant maintenance, load reduction, as polyester raw materials in this position rise weak.

Polyester filament: PTA rise, I will rise, cost support will rise; The crude oil will drop, but I will not. If the production of the plant is reduced, the price should be guaranteed

The trend of polyester raw materials is weak, the superimposed terminal demand is cold, and the production and sales data of factories are not good. In the short term, polyester filament may continue to be under pressure. But this week, some mainstream polyester factories discussed limiting the production of some varieties of polyester filament to ensure the price, so as to control the high price inventory, which will support the price to a certain extent.