Invalid "Cycle Stock Hedge Consensus": Star Fund Managers Look For New Directions

Since the first quarter report disclosed the season, many white horses in the market "fell", and the fund's heavy position stocks faced the second fall.

On April 15, "yaomao" Hengrui pharmaceutical continued to fall, closing at 82.18 yuan / share. In the four trading days of this week, Hengrui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. has lost 10% and its market value has evaporated by about 48 billion yuan.

Societe Generale Bank, which has more than 1000 funds, also suffered a flash collapse, with a decline of 5.35%. In this week, the Industrial Bank has fallen by more than 10% and its market value has evaporated to nearly 50 billion yuan.

In addition, the strong cyclical stocks that the early institutions were unanimously optimistic about also generally fell from the high point. Wanhua chemical, Sany Heavy Industry and Weichai Power all fell a lot recently.

Weight stocks hit the plate collectively, where is the new direction?

Ineffective group haven

All kinds of "Mao" are suffering from repeated setbacks.

There was a medical giant meinian health, which fell 30% in six trading days before, and Shunfeng holdings, a leading express delivery company in China, fell 20% in three trading days.

This week's biggest decline in the industry "Mao" stocks also include goldfish, Sany Heavy Industry, China immunity and so on.

The decline of meinian health and SF holdings was mainly due to the unsatisfactory first quarter results disclosed.

For example, SF holdings announced that it expected a net loss of 900-1.1 billion yuan in the first quarter and a profit of 907 million yuan in the same period of last year. According to the performance forecast of meinian health in the first quarter of 2021, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to lose 380 million to 430 million yuan during the reporting period.

It is worth noting that Wanhua chemical disclosed that the first quarter report data of 2021 exceeded expectations, but the stock price fell sharply.

On April 9, Wanhua chemical disclosed its first quarter report data, which showed that the company's net profit in the first quarter was 6.621 billion yuan, an increase of 380.82% over the previous year.

On April 12, the first trading day after the announcement, Wanhua chemical fell 6.39%.

Ten billion private equity star stone investment believes that the most fundamental reason for this phenomenon is that the market has a lower tolerance for overvalued white horse stocks. Driven by the loose liquidity in the early stage, the stock price of Baima stock has overdrawn its performance for many years at the expected level, while the upward interest rate will suppress the valuation side. The funds with large profit in the early stage have the demand of adjusting allocation and optimizing the cost performance ratio of portfolio.

Second, the market's expectations of economic fundamentals are divergent, and market sentiment is more fragile. In addition, from the perspective of capital, the market has entered the stock game state recently, which weakens the driving force of overvalued white horse.

"Baima dragon's valuation is in the historical extreme value, the valuation exceeds the market average, there is a mean regression process." Hu Yu, a partner and research director of Shenzhen Chengnuo asset management company, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that the funds of the institutions are loose, which leads to the collapse.

New consensus cycle stocks buried

The leading stocks in the cycle, which are favored by the institutions, are facing a sharp drop in their share prices, although their performance is strong.

Zijin mining, the leading nonferrous metals company, announced in a statement that the company's net profit in the first quarter is expected to be 2.3-2.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 121.15% - 140.38%.

The main reason for the profit was that the company took measures to overcome the impact of overseas epidemic situation and the Spring Festival holiday, and the output and sales price of mineral products increased year on year.

But at the same time of the announcement, Zijin Mining fell 7.6%.

Sany Heavy Industry, the leader of construction machinery industry, is the same.

Sany Heavy Industry's annual report in 2020 shows that the annual revenue of Sany Heavy Industry was 99.342 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 31.29%; the net profit was 15.431 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.25%.

Since the publication of the annual report, the stock price has been falling all the way. As of April 15, the stock price has fallen by 15%.

In addition, COSCO Haikong, a foreign trade consolidation and transportation company, has a good performance forecast in the first quarter of 2021.

According to the announcement, COSCO Haikong is expected to achieve a net profit of about 15.45 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first quarter of 2021. In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 292 million yuan. COSCO's net profit in the first quarter was 15.45 billion yuan, which was higher than that of last year.

But COSCO's share price is still falling.

Xiang Weida, chief economist of Great Wall Fund, believes that one of the direct reasons for the sharp fall of stock price after the announcement of periodic stock performance may be the cost pressure on the downstream enterprises caused by the recent central leadership's continuous prompt of rising bulk raw material prices. Investors are worried that the central government will shrink its currency in order to control inflation.

Another direct reason may be that the market is generally worried about the poor financial data in March.

In his opinion, although the explosive growth of Listed Companies in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year is of course difficult to sustain, it does not mean that the performance of these companies will drop sharply soon.

In the long run, the volatility of international commodity prices will become smaller and smaller, and the organizational structure of related industries will undergo profound changes. The market position and profitability of the surviving enterprises will continue to strengthen. The periodicity of the traditional so-called cyclical industries will become weaker and weaker. The current stock price volatility, to a large extent, is the result of excessive game among investors, but will give long-term funds Provides a better buying opportunity.

Is technology white horse a new direction?

The market is not optimistic, fund managers are also more cautious, some or have already adjusted positions.

According to the latest quarterly report released by Zhongying electronics, Xie Zhiyu, the star fund manager of Xingquan fund, with a management scale of nearly 60 billion yuan, has entered the top ten circulation shareholders with a number of products at the helm.

Among them, Xingquan Herun hybrid Xinjin holds 7.82 million shares, accounting for 2.8% of the total shares, and is the fourth largest circulating shareholder of Zhongying electronics.

Xingquan business model also newly held Zhongying electronics, ranking sixth with 677000 shares, accounting for 2.4% of the circulating shares.

In addition, a number of institutions became the top 10 new circulation shareholders in the first quarter, including Tianda Global Strategy Fund, Zhejiang merchants smart election fund, etc.

According to the public information, Zhongying electronic's main business is the design and sales of integrated circuits, and its main products are industrial level microcontroller (MCU) chips and OLED display driver chips.

Liu Gesong, the top fund manager of Guangfa fund with a management scale of more than 80 billion yuan, has increased the position of Jianfan biology.

In the first quarter report of Jianfan biology in 2021, several funds managed by Liu Gesong ranked among its top ten circulating shareholders.

Among them, the number of shares held by the three funds, namely, Guangfa double engine upgrading fund, Guangfa innovation and upgrading fund and GF Small Cap Growth Fund, remained unchanged, while Guangfa science and technology pioneer increased its holdings to 2.145 million shares compared with the end of last year.

As of the first quarter of 2021, Liu Gesong's four funds held 5.4% of the total equity.

Jianfan biology is the first listed company with blood purification products as its main business in China, specializing in the research and development, production and sales of biomaterials and high-tech medical devices.

On April 13, the first quarter report released by Jianfan biology showed that the company's operating revenue was 579 million yuan, an increase of 52.79% over the same period of last year, and the net profit was 283 million yuan, an increase of 53.62% over the same period of last year.

According to Xingshi investment, with the liquidity expectation peaking, the market of liquidity driving factors in the past two years has basically become the past pattern. Therefore, the investment mode should also be changed accordingly. It is necessary to examine the performance more strictly and pay attention to the "high asset barrier" companies. Such companies usually have stronger competitiveness and higher industrial status in the industry, and have stronger bargaining power. Therefore, they should pay more attention to the "high asset barrier" companies During the economic upward period, it enjoys higher performance elasticity.