The Regulatory Path Of "Big Cities" Looms: The Second Tier Cities Begin To "Take Over" After The First Tier Cities Have Concentrated Their Efforts

      On March 16, in order to further standardize the order of the real estate market and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market in Xi'an, in accordance with the central government's positioning spirit of "no speculation in housing", Xi'an housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau issued the notice on further standardizing the order of real estate market, emphasizing strengthening the verification of house purchasing qualification, strengthening the verification of house purchase funds and regulating the sales of commercial real estate We should standardize the order of sale, the order of stock house transaction, the behavior of information release and the intensity of inspection and supervision.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in February this year, the prices of new houses in Xi'an increased by 0.8% month on month, and the prices of second-hand houses rose by 0.9% month on month, ranking first in 70 large and medium-sized cities.

Previously, the government work report released on March 5 pointed out that this year we should "solve the outstanding housing problems in big cities". This is after the central economic work conference at the end of last year, the regulatory authorities made this statement again. Therefore, the housing problem of "big city" has been put forward as a regulation content.

According to incomplete statistics, in the past two weeks, at least eight major cities have introduced measures to regulate and control the property market, of which Shanghai has the most intensive regulation frequency. In terms of policy content, there are both demand control and supply side power.

This round of intensive regulation of big cities is not only the policy requirements of the regulatory authorities, but also in line with the current market hot spots. From the perspective of regulation and control path, after the first tier cities take the lead in introducing policies, the second tier cities have a momentum of "taking over", which also reflects the conduction path of current market hot spots.

On March 16, Shanghai announced its education reform policy, which is believed to be able to curb the hype of school district housing. Visual China

Both sides of supply and demand are working together

Before Xi'an, there were many big cities to regulate the property market. On March 11, Hefei housing security and real estate administration bureau and market supervision and Administration Bureau jointly held an interview meeting between real estate enterprises and brokerage agencies, requiring all real estate enterprises and brokerage institutions not to bundle and tie in or increase prices, earnestly implement the central "no speculation in housing" policy, implement the municipal Party committee and municipal government's decision-making and deployment of "curbing and disturbing the chaos of the real estate market", and jointly maintain the market order.

Beijing issued a draft for comments on March 12 to adjust the conditions for drawing provident fund from second-hand housing, which is subject to more stringent audit. Zhengzhou also issued a document on March 8 to appropriately extend the deposit time limit for applying for provident fund loans and adjust the maximum loan ratio. Dalian announced that the information of personal housing provident fund loan will be included in the credit system of the people's Bank of China.

In addition, Nanjing issued a document on March 10, which continued to emphasize the prohibition of "commercial housing". Qingdao issued a document on March 15 to continue to relax the restrictions on settlement.

Shanghai is the most intensive city in recent years. It was reported on March 12 that the Shanghai headquarters of the people's Bank of China issued the guidelines on Shanghai credit policy in 2021, which requires strengthening the management of individual housing loans and strictly examining the authenticity of the personal information of the lender. We will effectively prevent consumer loans and business loans from flowing into the real estate market in violation of regulations.

On March 16, Shanghai announced its educational reform policy, which allocates high-quality senior high school resources in the form of quota allocation. This is considered to be able to suppress the speculation in school district housing.

Earlier in March, in order to further regulate the order of the real estate market, Shanghai housing management, market supervision and urban management law enforcement departments jointly enforced the law, investigated and dealt with a number of illegal cases, and reported 6 typical cases. On March 5, Minhang District Housing Management Bureau held a 2021 Minhang District Housing rental work meeting, requiring all brokerage agencies to actively implement the filing system and the housing information reporting system, and do a good job in the management of business entities and housing information.

In addition to the demand side to strictly prevent the illegal entry of funds into real estate, some cities are still working on the supply side. For example, in order to increase market supply, Shanghai has recently completed the price filing of a batch of newly-built commercial houses, involving 33 projects, totaling more than 10000 units.

Beijing has also increased the supply of rental housing land in this year's land supply plan. Specifically, Beijing plans to lease 300 hectares of residential land this year, including 150 hectares of collective land rental housing and 150 hectares of public rental housing, an increase of 100 hectares and 70 hectares respectively compared with 2020.

Second tier cities "catching up"

The emergence of housing problems in big cities has an important background, that is, in the context of loose monetary policy in 2020, capital will inevitably spill over to the real estate market. Among them, under the circumstances that the vast number of third and fourth tier cities have gradually lost their attraction due to the ebb tide of shed reform, large cities have become the "high point" of funds.

The first tier cities are the hot spots among them. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the average housing price growth in the first tier cities has been leading since the fourth quarter of last year.

This round of big cities began to speed up the pace of regulation and control, starting from the first tier cities.

Shanghai launched the "first shot" in the regulation of the property market in 2021 through the release of the "Shanghai ten articles". Since then, with the rhythm of almost "one new deal a day", it blocked up small loopholes such as false divorce and property donation, and dealt a heavy blow to the speculators. Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen also regulate the property market through various "patching" methods.

The effect of the regulatory policies launched by first tier cities has begun to show. In February this year, the selling prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in four first tier cities increased by 0.5% month on month, 0.1% lower than that in January. Second hand housing sales prices rose 1.1% month on month, down 0.2 percentage points.

But at the same time, part of the second tier city's house prices appear warming momentum. "The market heat from the first tier cities to the second tier cities began to appear." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that in February this year, the house prices of new and second-hand houses in Xi'an, Hefei, Chengdu and other cities in the second tier cities ranked among the top 10, with a relatively high market temperature. With the effect of regulation and control in first tier cities gradually appearing, funds may be transferred to key second tier cities.

Xu Xiaole believes that this transmission is expected to continue. Since March, the turnover of second-hand houses in Beijing and Shanghai has declined, and the boom index has remained high. However, the prosperity of second tier cities such as Xi'an and Hefei is improving, and the market expectation is enhanced. The seasonal release of demand for rigid demand and school district in March may drive the market in some second tier cities to warm up and put upward pressure on house prices.

This also means that the second tier cities have successively launched regulatory policies, which is not only the policy requirements of the regulatory authorities on housing problems in "big cities", but also conforms to the current market hot spots.

In fact, from the supervision line of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, it is not difficult to see this trend. From late January to February, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, led a team to investigate and supervise in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and other cities. In early March, the supervision group went to Hangzhou and Wuxi.

Most analysts believe that, as some regional markets still have strong warming momentum, it is expected that the momentum of regulation and control in big cities will continue. With the transfer of hot spots in the property market, the second tier cities will become the focus of the next round of regulation. In addition, in some small and medium-sized cities in the core metropolitan area, the property market regulation is also expected to warm up.