Wanwu'S Raw Materials Are Difficult To Accept, And Downstream Trading Slowed Down Significantly

After nearly two weeks of crazy soaring, cotton yarn prices began to gradually "cool down" in the last ten days of this week. As of October 22, cy c32s pure cotton yarn reported 21950 yuan / ton, which was 550 yuan / ton lower than the recent highest (October 19) 22500 yuan, a decrease of 2.44%.

From the perspective of raw materials, the rush collection of seed cotton after the National Day festival pushed up the cost of cotton, and part of the actual order and a large number of speculative hoarding caused the short-term market supply in short-term. However, as the price continued to rise, the rich profits made traders start to fall back. The rise of raw material inventory and high prices inhibited the downstream purchasing demand. After October, orders gradually entered the consumption off-season. Even the Li Li's purchase and storage policy released on the 21st also became the driving force of Zheng Mian's decline. As of October 22, the cc3128b cotton index closed at 14643 yuan / ton, which dropped by 280 yuan / ton or 1.88% from the high point of 14923 two days ago. It seems that most textile enterprises still can't accept cotton breaking through the 10000 mark. At present, the acceptance of new cotton price by large textile enterprises has weakened, and many textile enterprises have stopped or reduced the purchase of new cotton.

From the current point of view, yarn finished products go As of October 22, China's yarn inventory index closed at 7.7 days, up 0.8 days from a low of 6.9 days. Some production-oriented enterprises are still carrying out the orders signed in the early stage. From the perspective of profit, whether using cotton 20 days ago or spot profit, textile enterprises have made a profit. Due to the repair of downstream profits, textile enterprises and textile mills have recovered rapidly recently. Although this means that the absolute demand for cotton raw materials in the downstream increases, it also means that the supply of finished products in the later stage will also increase If there are not many new downstream orders after the double 11 and cold winter orders, the downstream finished goods delivery channel will become congested again.

With the large number of traders purchasing, textile factory shipment increased, inventory decreased. It is understood that the inventory of large textile factories has been basically emptied, some low inventory manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory of some small and medium-sized factories has also decreased from 2 months to 15-20 days. With the price of raw materials falling, grey cloth market is also gradually calm, it is expected that the textile factory inventory will increase again. In addition, most factories said that the recent order increment is not much, with small, short and urgent orders as the mainstream, and there are no large orders and long orders. At present, the on machine orders can only last for 20-30 days. In addition, due to the reduction of production capacity in 2020 and the widespread loss of workers, it is difficult to find workers in weaving mills when the market is improving, so it is difficult to start the machine. With the cooling down of the market, the start-up rate of the weaving mill will run smoothly in a short period of time, but it is expected that it will be reduced in the late November.

On the other hand, recently, a large number of weaving, clothing and foreign trade companies in coastal areas reported that cotton, cotton yarn, grey cloth, and fabrics ushered in a "price rise tide" -- not only led to a blow to the order receiving and production and marketing situation that had just recovered in September and October, but also that orders for down jacket and medium thick trousers could not be sent out because of the sharp rise in the prices of finished products such as textiles and clothing----- According to the contract price, it is difficult to find textile and clothing manufacturers to process on behalf of them, so they have to "abandon the order"; the export orders that have already followed can only pay the price difference, and the contract will be completed in case of losses; while in the domestic demand market, under the premise of "rising" of cotton and gauze, the orders in spring and summer of 2021 will fall back at a high level due to the sharp increase of cost and the decline of profits.

In a word, the two-week "crazy raw material" has come to an end, and the replenishment of the downstream industry has slowed down. With the progress of time, textile enterprises can choose imported cotton, imported yarn, viscose, polyester short, etc. to replace them. Too high cost will lead to the loss of new cotton pricing significance. As for the online foreign trade orders scheduled to march to May next year is even more ridiculous. In fact, with the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate today, the export profits of textile and clothing enterprises do not rise but fall, while most foreign brands and retailers do not accept the increase in the quotation of textile and clothing enterprises and foreign trade companies, and the rise of raw materials and gauze is difficult to pass to the terminal.