Economic Operation Recovered Steadily In July

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on August 14, the added value of industries above Designated Size nationwide increased by 4.8% year-on-year in July, the growth rate was the same as that in June; the service industry production index increased by 3.5%, 1.2 percentage points higher than that in June; the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 1.1%, 0.7 percentage points lower than that in June. Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that overall, the national economy continued to recover steadily in July, and the main economic indicators continued to improve. In the next stage, we will consolidate and expand the achievements of epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery, and strive to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development.

The growth of pillar industries has accelerated significantly

"Judging from the economic operation in July, it can be summarized as two characteristics: one is the stable recovery of the economy; the other is the sustained development towards a good situation." Fu Linghui said at a news conference of the office of the State Council of new China on August 14.

Look at recovery——

Production is steadily rising, and demand is gradually improving. In terms of industry, in July, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as that of the previous month; 60% of products and industries achieved growth, of which the growth of pillar industries such as automobile and electronics was significantly accelerated. In terms of consumption and investment, the retail sales of goods increased by 0.2% in July, from negative to positive for the first time since this year; investment in fixed assets decreased by 1.6% from January to July, 1.5 percentage points lower than that from January to June.

The employment situation is generally stable and the price rise is moderate. In July, the unemployment rate of the national urban survey was 5.7%, which was the same as that of the previous month; the unemployment rate of the main employment group aged 25-59 was 5.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In July, consumer prices rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly larger than the previous month, but still below 3%, which is a moderate rise.

The foreign trade situation is better than expected. In July, China's import and export increased by 6.5% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 10.4%, for four consecutive months.

Look forward to good——

The trend of industrial upgrading remains unchanged. From the industrial point of view, in July, the high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.8% and 13% respectively year-on-year, significantly faster than the growth of the whole industry above the scale. From the perspective of service industry, the production index of information transmission, software and information technology service industry increased by 13.7% year-on-year in July, faster than the growth of the overall service industry.

New driving forces for development have continued to increase. Online sales, internet education, and medical care have developed rapidly. From January to July, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 15.7% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than that in January June.

The market is expected to improve as a whole. In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 51.1%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month; the non manufacturing business activity index was 54.2%, both manufacturing and non manufacturing PMI were higher than the critical point for five consecutive months.

Food prices can be stable

In the last two months, CPI has been increasing continuously. Will it continue to rise in the future?

Fu Linghui pointed out that in July, the national consumer price rose by 2.7% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points higher than that in June. Among them, food prices rose by 13.2%, accounting for 99.3% of the total increase in consumer prices, which was the main factor driving the CPI rise in July.

"Structurally, there are two main factors affecting the rise of food prices: one is the rise in pork prices, which rose 85.7% year-on-year in July, affecting the rise of consumer prices by 2.3 percentage points; the other is that the price of fresh vegetables rose by 7.9% in July on a year-on-year basis, affecting consumer prices by nearly 0.2 percentage points." Fu Linghui said.

Talking about the rise of pork prices, Fu Linghui said that on the one hand, with the resumption of production and catering services, the demand for pork has been expanded; on the other hand, the flood situation in southern China has had a negative impact on pig production and transportation, which has greatly affected the rise of pork prices. "According to the survey, the amount of live pigs on hand is increasing quarter by quarter, but from the supply situation, the production and supply of live pigs are still in a tight balance, and the high price will last for a period of time, but the possibility of a sharp rise in pork prices is not likely. Fresh vegetable prices are mainly impacted by short-term factors. The growth cycle of fresh vegetables is relatively short, which will not significantly promote the overall price. "

Fu Linghui pointed out that the most important food price is grain. China's grain output has been stable at more than 1.3 trillion Jin for five consecutive years, and grain stocks are relatively adequate. This year, a bumper harvest of summer grain was achieved, and the output increased by 0.9% over the previous year, setting a record high. "Generally speaking, agricultural investment has gradually increased in recent years, and grain production has a relatively good foundation. There are foundations and conditions for food prices to remain stable throughout the year. "

"From the perspective of industrial consumer goods, at present, the price of industrial consumer goods has dropped year-on-year, and there is no basis for the sharp rise in service prices. On the whole, there are foundations and conditions for the price to remain basically stable throughout the year. " Fu Linghui said.

Promoting steady and healthy economic development

How do you see the future economic recovery? Fu Linghui believes that the recovery of growth at the supply side is supported, and a series of policies for resuming work and production and enterprise relief policies continue to promote the recovery of production. In terms of total volume, industrial production has changed from decline to growth; from the perspective of structure, high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries have grown rapidly, and new products such as 3D printing equipment and smart watches have also maintained rapid growth.

"At the same time, demand is also accelerating to pick up. In July, the decline rate of total retail sales of consumer goods is narrowing, and the growth rate of retail sales of goods has turned from negative to positive; from January to July, the decline in investment has been significantly narrowed, and the driving effect on production has been gradually strengthened." Fu Linghui said that in the whole year, there are many favorable conditions for maintaining stable growth. Now the situation of epidemic prevention and control is stable, which has laid a good foundation for economic recovery. In addition, the government will increase the amount of tax cut to 1.5 trillion yuan and restore the fiscal deficit to 1 trillion yuan and 5 trillion yuan to the financial system.

Fu Linghui said that in addition, the resumption of work and production has achieved positive results and increased vitality. The PMI of the manufacturing industry remained above the critical point for five consecutive months. In June, the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 11.5% year on year, which is conducive to economic recovery.

"Of course, we should also see that the global epidemic of new pneumonia is still spreading, and the international economic environment is grim and complex; domestic structural, institutional and cyclical contradictions coexist, and development is facing many difficulties and challenges." Fu Linghui said that the next step is to implement the "six guarantees", promote the "six stabilities", promote the stable and healthy economic development, and strive to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development.