Shang Fulin: In The Future Or In The Financial Field.

In 2014, the growth rate of banking loans has dropped to 13.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from the average growth rate in the previous 5 years, and net profit of commercial banks has increased 9.7% over the previous year, an average decline of more than half of that in the previous 5 years. There are various signs that the convenient conditions for the development of the banking industry in the past are no longer available, and the growth rate will become a long-term trend of the banking industry.

　　 First heavy credit Fund allocation efficiency

"Change things differently". The banking industry must respond positively and take the initiative to act as the primary strategic choice to improve the allocation efficiency of credit funds. Specific measures can be taken from three aspects:

First, change from "speaking growth" to "speaking speed". At present, the scale of loan stock has been very large, but the speed of the transfer of credit funds has decreased significantly. To this end, we must speed up. Capital turnover By promoting merger and reorganization, strengthening loan term management and advancing credit assets circulation, we can make stock loans turn to life, replace the growth rate with speed, exchange efficiency with efficiency, and change the "cash flow" of credit funds as soon as possible.

The two is the transformation from quantity to quality. The implementation of business transformation and upgrading and development mode reengineering should focus on strengthening corporate governance, enhancing the level of wind control, and improving the operation system, so as to enhance the quality of development and turn the extensive development into intensive management.

Three, change from "speaking proportion" to "strategy". In the past, many banks were dealing with scale, grabbing shares, accounting for shares and ranking. Now we need to carry out strategic transformation of development, change the traditional practice of overcompetition of existing market share, make full use of the space brought about by economic structural adjustment and industrial transformation and upgrading, adjust the development strategy according to the time and adjust measures to local conditions, open up new markets and seek new development.

　　 How to make profits when the interest rate spreads narrowed

Looking back on the history of global financial development over the past hundred years, the developed market economies such as the United States and Japan have seen the narrowing of the deposit and loan spreads in the early stage of interest rate liberalization. In 2014, the net income of net interest of China's commercial banks accounted for 48% of net operating income, down 7.3 percentage points from 3 years ago.

It can be predicted that interest rate will further narrow as interest rate marketization increases gradually, and the proportion of interest income will be further reduced. The traditional profit model of large-scale interest rate spreads has been difficult to continue, and the profit model must be changed.

In the initial stage of interest rate liberalization in the United States and Japan, some banks were unable to bear the sharp increase in deposit cost. They invested large amounts of loans in high-yield and high-risk projects, triggering "adverse selection", and some banks widely used low-cost short-term financing for long-term assets projects with high returns, resulting in serious mismatch of asset liability structure. The banking industry should draw lessons from it and do more basic and long-term interests.

On the whole, Banking We should consider the following aspects: facing the challenges brought by narrowing spreads:

First, we should study the effectiveness of management. Strengthen fine management, reshape business processes and reduce operating costs. We should optimize the structure of assets and liabilities and ensure that assets and liabilities match reasonably in terms of aggregate, price and time limit.

The two is to study the effectiveness of pricing. We should enhance the ability of pricing and interest rate risk management, and build an effective mechanism of interest rate risk avoidance, decentralization, transfer and compensation to achieve the goal of profit, risk coverage and business sustainability.

The three is to study the effectiveness of wind control. We should take effective measures to improve asset quality, reduce the proportion of non-performing loans, and avoid the phenomenon of excessive profits erosion.

The four is to study the effectiveness of services. In the process of interest rate liberalization in the United States, Wells Fargo deeply excavated community and small businesses, and brought new stable growth points through meticulous management, high-quality service and business portfolio innovation. This is a good inspiration. We should take efficiency driven as the guide, segment the service market, provide customers with more personalized, specialized and comprehensive financial services, and enhance customer cohesion.

　　 Vigorously promote innovation driven capabilities

At present, with the development of financial market, the choice of enterprise financing is changing obviously. The more obvious trend is that large group financing to international financing, large enterprises to market, small businesses to private financing, new enterprises to private financing, and securities, insurance, information management, funds and other extensive involvement in credit activities, small loans, guarantees, pawn third party payment and more and more acts as financing intermediaries, making traditional bank credit squeezed.

In 2002, the ratio of RMB loans to China's total social financing was 91.9%, while in 2014 it had dropped to 41.2%. According to statistics, the balance of loans of small loan companies and net loan platforms totaled over 1 trillion yuan at the end of 2014. All these indicate that the way of social financing is changing obviously, and the competition in the financing market is becoming more and more intense.

In the 70s and 80s of last century, there was a wave of financial innovation and financial liberalization in the US, Japan and Europe. It can be said that diversification of financing means is the inevitable outcome of the development of the financial industry in the market economy.

The situation is pressing. The banking sector must increase financial innovation and keep pace with the times of public entrepreneurship and innovation. Therefore, we must explore how to use information technology to enhance business innovation. We should grasp the opportunity of financial information development, use the Internet, big data and cloud computing technology to create a digital financial platform, consolidate the physical operation channel, and extend the virtual management space.

We should explore ways to strengthen non credit and off balance sheet business innovation. We should seize the opportunity of wealth growth and diversification of financial needs, and develop the high value-added business of wealth management and asset custody under the premise of strengthening risk management and risk isolation, and actively expand the source of income.

We should explore how to strengthen the innovation of debt business. We raise funds through various means such as financial bonds, large deposit certificates and offer transactions, so as to enhance the ability of active debt.

In addition, we should explore how to strengthen credit business innovation. Under the premise of controllable risk, deadline matching and compliance operation, we should actively expand business scope, increase business varieties, and open up new profit channels.

　 Recognize the rebound trend of bad loans

The quality of financial assets is a wind vane for the operation of the real economy. In recent years, some pressures accumulated in the real economy have been increasingly reflected in the quality of bank credit. The typical performance is that the balance and ratio of non-performing loans in banks continue to be "double litre".

By the end of 2014, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks in China amounted to 842 billion 600 million yuan, rising for 12 consecutive quarters, and the rate of non-performing loans was 1.25%, up 0.22 percentage points from the beginning of the year. We must soberly realize that in the coming period, the difficulties in economic operation may appear further in the financial field.

Facing the grim situation of increasing risk pressure, we must maintain strategic determination and take the initiative. From the perspective of banking industry, we can neither afford to be illusions nor expose, nor can we expect to reduce pressure by means of concealment, poor dilution and poor peeling. We must base ourselves on the situation, take timely measures to control the bad in development, reduce bad in invigorating, and indigestion in disposition.

The specific way is to write off bad in time. We should make full use of the policy convenience of loosening the condition of bad debts cancellation, and increase the independent verification of bad debts under the premise of ensuring that accounts, cases and rights are in place.

In addition, we should actively revitalize the bad. By making full use of the different risk preferences of financial market participants, with the help of asset securitization and asset transfer, we can sell bad loans to qualified and willing investors through reasonable channels, and "two pronged approach", which not only disperses risks, but also invigorates capital.

At the same time, financial institutions need to fight for bad restructuring and explore effective mechanisms for bulk loans and market-based disposal of non-performing loans.

　　 Strengthen compliance with law-abiding business

From the international perspective, since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, a lot of reforms have been carried out in the international banking regulatory circles, and more stringent regulatory standards have been issued in the areas of capital, leverage and liquidity. Wide regulation and strict supervision have become the consensus of the global banking industry development and supervision.

From the domestic perspective, with the active promotion of financial reform and the construction of financial rule of law, the CBRC started the reform process of regulatory framework at the beginning of the new year. The core of this reform is regulatory transformation. On the one hand, we should further strengthen decentralization and embody the guidance of "wide regulation". The daily market access authority of local financial institutions such as city commercial banks, agricultural business banks and other local financial institutions shall be delegated to the banking regulatory bureau of the place where the registration is located. The agency will only examine and approve the 3 items of the new establishment and withdrawal, reorganization and reorganization, and bankruptcy reorganization of the legal entity.

On the other hand, we should improve the supervision system and mechanism so as to create conditions for "strict supervision". The number of regulatory agencies increased from 11 to 17, so that the proportion of regulatory departments to the total number of departments increased to 77.3%. It is foreseeable that under the general trend of "wide regulation and strict supervision", the space of regulatory arbitrage will be gradually reduced, and the border of business according to law will be clearer.

Banking financial institutions can no longer hope to make profits through such ways as "stepping on the red line", "playing the edge ball", "blurring the zone", etc., but rather, regulating the operation and promoting healthy development.