The Key To Raising The US Dollar Interest Rate Is To Raise The Agenda.

< p > < strong > 1: fundamental analysis < /strong > < /p >

< p > yesterday (May 20th), the exchange rate between various major a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > currencies < /a > maintained inter regional fluctuations. The Australian dollar fell below the US $0.93 mark against the US dollar. The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen for fifth trading days, and the US dollar index rose 0.02% in all day trading.

Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.8% in April, up from 1.6% over the same period in March.

Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the increase was due to the influence of Easter. During the holiday, the travel cost rose more than the normal level. The Bank of England predicted that the inflation rate in 4, 5 and June will be around 1.8%.

On the stock market, most of the three major global stock indexes fell.

In the precious metals sector, the US stock market fell, making gold price rebounded and closed at $1294.09 / ounce.

< /p >

As of P, > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > foreign exchange > /a >, as of the end of the day, the exchange rate of 1 euro was 1.3699 US dollars, which was lower than that of the previous trading day of 1.3708 US dollars; the exchange rate of 1 pounds was 1.6835 US dollars, which was higher than the 1.6810 US dollars of the previous trading day; the 1 Australian dollar was 0.9238 yuan, which was lower than the previous day's 0.9322 dollars; the 1 dollar changed to 101.29 yen, which was lower than the previous yen's yen.

On Tuesday, the Aussie dollar fell sharply against other major currencies, due to the negative impact of Australian capital flows, sovereign credit ratings being reconsidered and falling spot prices of iron ore.

Earlier yesterday, the Australian central bank's May 6th meeting minutes showed that the bank is expected to be affected by further weakening of mining investment, demand and exports, and the growth rate of Australia's economy will slow down.

After the release of the minutes, Guy Debelle, the assistant governor of the Australian central bank, said in a speech that the scale of foreign capital inflows may decline, and that the value of the Australian dollar will be lowered.

Later, the Australian financial review reported that if Australia could not effectively control the budget deficit, the rating agency Standard & Poor's could reconsider the country's AAA sovereign credit rating in the next two years.

This report worries investors because S & P is using credit ratings to determine the credibility of issuers.

The cumulative effect of the news has dragged down the Australian dollar, and the risk aversion has been popular among investors. They tend to buy security assets such as US Treasuries, while selling stocks and emerging market currencies.

Generally speaking, investor inflation regards the Australian dollar as an asset that will depreciate when economic and political uncertainties exist.

< /p >

Today, Wednesday (May 21st), the market entered the climax of the market this week (P).

During the Asian session, Japan will release the commodity trade account data and the BoJ interest rate resolution. The resolution will continue to maintain stability policy. Investors will be concerned about the views of the Bank of Japan on the economic situation and the description of future monetary policy trend after the consumer tax is raised in the post meeting statement.

If the Bank of Japan does not expand its asset purchases on Wednesday, the dollar may weaken further against the yen.

It is widely expected that the Central Bank of Japan will maintain its policy after ending its two day policy meeting on Wednesday, but the market will focus on the press conference of President Kuroda of the Bank of Japan.

In the case of a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Euro < /a >, investors can pay close attention to the initial account of the current account, net direct investment and consumer confidence index in the euro area. Before the release of the Fed minutes, the euro zone data had limited influence on the euro to the US dollar.

Next, investment should focus on the minutes released by the Bank of England and the retail sales monthly data in the UK.

In the resolution earlier this month, the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and relaxed scale unchanged.

Although the UK's data have been performing well recently, the Bank of England has been pressing interest rate hike expectations. Investors in this summary will pay more attention to the Bank of England's description of future policies.

Finally, the most important thing in the day is the minutes of the meeting released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday, May 22nd, at 2 a.m. Beijing time.

Investors should be concerned about how the Fed modifies and changes the timetable for changes in interest rates.

For this summary, many analysts believe that in the context of a moderate recovery in the US economy, how to raise interest rates and raise interest rates will be a problem for the Fed.

From the market report after the April resolution, the Fed Council held a meeting to discuss "medium term monetary policy", suggesting that the Fed's exit strategy may soon be adjusted.

Many industry insiders pointed out that the Fed may reveal clues in the minutes to adjust the benchmark interest rate mechanism.

If this is the case, Yellen's "new exit strategy" which has never been able to stand out after he came to power is expected to unveil the mystery for the first time.

For more technical analysis of foreign exchange gold, please pay attention to the Zhang Wei foreign exchange video solution on potatoes Youku. < /p >

< p > < strong > Two: technical analysis < /strong > < /p >

< p > Gold strategy analysis: < /p >

< p > gold was at its lowest level yesterday near 1285, and the market outlook rebounded slightly. It is expected that the market will be tested again after the 1300 position.

Intraday operations focus on 1298 near the location, high to the air, target 1285.

The New York time is concerned about the Fed's resolution.

< /p >

< p > main strategy: 1298 near short, target 1285, stop loss 1306 < /p >

Strategic analysis of < p > Euro: < /p >

< p > Europe and the United States gained support rebound near 1.3680 yesterday. At present, Europe and the United States as a whole are still in the adjustment stage, underneath support strength has strengthened trend, intra day operation pays close attention to the support of the 1.37 front-line operation, taking into account more than the lowest price, the upper target 1.3740.

< /p >

< p > main strategy: 1.3690 near do more, target 1.3740, stop loss 1.3670 < /p >

< p > pound strategy analysis: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 1.6820 near do more, target 1.6870, stop loss 1.6800 < /p >

< p > US Japan strategy analysis: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 101.35 near short, target 101, stop loss 101.55 < /p >