Zhang Yutai: The Economy Continues To Maintain A Stable Trend.

　　 Zhang Yu Tai, director of the development research center of the State Council, said at 6 Chongqing Forum on "responsibility for scientific development and state owned enterprises" that the GDP growth rate this year will be around 10%-11%.

Investment growth will be slightly callback

Zhang Yutai said he will develop from the second half of this year. trend In view of this, the real growth rate of investment and consumption in China will maintain a slight pullback trend. At the same time, western developed countries are generally facing the pressure of reducing fiscal deficits and defusing debt risks, which will slow down the growth of China's exports in the second half of the year. The dual factors of domestic demand and exports may cause a certain callback in China's GDP growth in the second half of the year.

Zhang Yutai said that from the first half of this year, the overall economic development is good and continues to move forward. Macroscopic The expected development of regulation. The National Bureau of statistics preliminarily estimated that the gross domestic product increased by 11.1% in the first half of the year. The development research center of the State Council made use of the economic growth cycle model to simulate and forecast. The result shows that in 2010, when the total fiscal expenditure reaches 11.4% of the budget growth target, the GDP growth rate in China will reach about 10% in 2010. If the increase of fiscal expenditure is higher than 11.4%, the growth rate of domestic demand and external demand in the second half of the year will not drop significantly, so the growth rate of this year's growth will reach 11%.

　　 The economy continues to maintain a stable trend.

Zhang Yutai judged that China's macroeconomic situation will remain stable in the second half of the year. The short-term callback of economic growth is a high adjustment during the recovery process, and is also the expected result of the active adjustment of the policy. China's macroeconomic policy is to maintain a steady and rapid economic development, adjust the economic structure and prevent bubbles and curb inflation, adjust in real time according to the economic callback and inflation pressure, enhance the flexibility and pertinence of policies, prevent the ups and downs, and gradually realize the economy. policy A smooth transition from coping to routine. Growth, but still faces eight challenges and problems: first, the rapid growth of the economy, but the extensive characteristics of economic growth are still very significant; two, the low cost competitive advantage is being gradually weakened; three, in the process of self growth, the vitality of the system and mechanism needs to be released; four, independent innovation has made new progress; however, technological progress has not pushed the economic development forward; five, the development speed of the service industry has been accelerated, but it has lagged behind; six, opening up has promoted economic development, but the problem of internal and external economic disharmony has become more and more obvious; seven is the accelerated pace of ecological civilization construction, but the task of resource conservation and ecological environment governance is still arduous; eight is the rapid economic development, but the economic development is not balanced, the income gap and public services are still insufficient. However, Zhang Yu Tai pointed out that although the national economy has maintained a steady and fast pace.