Prosperity Report Of China'S Cotton Textile Industry In November 2020

In November, the prosperity index of China's cotton textile industry was 51.23, which was above the boom and bust line for three consecutive months. In terms of raw materials, the price of raw materials remained basically stable this month. Affected by the order structure, textile enterprises increased cotton procurement, while non cotton fiber procurement decreased. In terms of production, sales and inventory, most textile enterprises ordered in the early stage of production, and the production rhythm was basically the same as that of the previous month; yarn prices and orders remained stable, grey cloth prices rose month on month and sales improved; products were produced and sold with low inventory.

According to the survey results of this month's cotton textile market, due to the influence of market supply-demand relationship and market environment, the market price of raw materials is relatively firm, and the prices of some differentiated fiber raw materials are rising. In terms of products, the spinning capacity basically keeps running at full speed, mainly to order production, with less product inventory. However, due to the high production cost, the benefit has not been significantly improved; In terms of fabrics, at present, the opening rate of textile enterprises is basically the same as that of last month. The sales of home textile fabrics are better than that of clothing fabrics, and fabric orders in spring and summer are gradually opened. However, due to the prudence of the downstream, the orders are mostly scattered and small.

In terms of import and export, according to customs statistics, from January to November, China's total import and export value in US dollars was 4.17 trillion US dollars, an increase of 0.6%, and the growth rate turned positive for the first time. From January to November, China's textile and clothing exports totaled US $265.21 billion, an increase of 9.9%, including textile exports of 141.65 billion US dollars, an increase of 31%, and clothing exports of 123.56 billion US dollars, a decrease of 7.2%. In November, the total value of China's foreign trade in November was 460.72 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.6%. Among them, exports reached 268.07 billion US dollars, an increase of 21.1%, the highest growth rate since February 2018. In November, the export of textiles and clothing reached US $24.58 billion, an increase of 13.5%, including 12.03 billion US dollars of textile exports, an increase of 21.8%, and 12.55 billion US dollars of clothing exports, an increase of 6.6%. Driven by the gradual recovery of international market demand, China's textile and clothing exports are expected to continue to maintain a positive growth. But at the same time, it is also faced with the impact of factors such as the recovery of production capacity of major overseas competitive countries which will seize part of the export share of the industry and the uncertainty of the development of international epidemic situation on China's textile and clothing export.

Raw material purchasing index

In November, the raw material purchasing index was 52.67. This month, domestic cotton futures spot price range shocks, foreign cotton prices down. This month, the domestic processing capacity of new cotton increased sharply, and the market was abundant in cotton resources, which restrained the rise of cotton price to a certain extent, and the rise rate of cotton price was lower than that of last month. In terms of foreign cotton, stimulated by the good news of the new crown pneumonia vaccine and the US election, the international cotton price fluctuated and rose in mid November, and then fell due to the lack of demand support. In terms of chemical fiber staple fiber, the overall trading sentiment of direct spinning polyester short was slightly weak, and the price dropped; the price of viscose fiber increased.

According to the specific data, the average price of 3128 cotton in China this month was 14731 yuan / ton, up 22 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the average cotook a index was 77.72 cents / pound, up 1.77 cents / pound; the average price of mainstream viscose fiber was 10591 yuan / ton, up 277 yuan / ton; the average price of 1.4d direct spinning polyester was 5586 yuan / ton, down 222 yuan / ton month on month.

Stock index of raw materials

In November, the raw material inventory index was 49.66, and the raw material inventory decreased slightly on a month on month basis. In terms of varieties, cotton inventory was basically flat on a month on month basis, while non cotton fiber inventory decreased significantly. This month, textile enterprises to production orders, basically maintain full load production, affected by the order structure, textile enterprises moderately increase cotton inventory. According to the coordination survey of China Cotton bank, in November, the proportion of enterprises with cotton inventory increasing on a month on month basis accounted for 35.34%, while those with a month on month decrease accounted for 33.08%; enterprises with non cotton fiber inventory increased on a month on month basis accounted for 27.33%, and those with a month on month decrease accounted for 36.42%. Compared with October, the proportion of enterprises whose non cotton fiber inventory decreased month on month increased by 9 percentage points.

Production index

In November, the production index was 52.18, and the opening rate and product output remained at a high level. According to the survey results of China Cotton Association, 47.88% of the surveyed enterprises said that the yarn output rose on a month on month basis, 27.12% of the surveyed enterprises showed a month on month decrease in the output of yarn; 61.15% of the enterprises surveyed said that the output of cloth increased on a month on month basis, and 18.49% of the enterprises surveyed showed a decline. Compared with that in October, the yield of this month increased significantly. Textile enterprises said that the current enterprise scheduling is more full, mainly production orders in October, to maintain full production. From the perspective of product structure, the thick and thick fabrics used for home textile products are in the peak sales season, and the production volume is large, while the production of woven clothing fabrics is relatively light.

Product sales index

In November, the product sales index was 51.79, and the sales were relatively smooth. This month, with the gradual recovery of domestic and international consumer demand, the situation of domestic and foreign trade has further improved. The sales of various products are relatively smooth, and some varieties are in short supply. In terms of products, the price of low count yarn is relatively stable, the sales volume is stable, and the high count yarn orders are more sufficient; in terms of fabrics, the sales of thick and thick varieties are more smooth. At present, large and medium-sized textile enterprise orders are more sufficient, small enterprises orders fall significantly, business pressure began to increase. Some textile enterprises said that compared with October, due to the rise of raw material prices, this month is mainly driven by demand for textile sales. At present, the supply of products is in short supply, and the production is under full power. It is expected that the order can be maintained until the end of the year. Some foreign trade enterprises said that due to the sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in November, foreign trade orders decreased and foreign exchange settlement losses increased. In order to avoid the risk of foreign exchange settlement, textile enterprises take more measures to lock foreign exchange.

Product inventory index

In November, the product inventory index was 51.45. Product inventory is at a low level, mainly due to two factors: one is the sharp rise in cotton prices in the middle and early October, which drives up the market enthusiasm, and the strong willingness to order downstream, which brings a good opportunity for textile enterprises to de stock. By the end of October, most of the textile enterprises' product inventory is generally low, and some textile enterprises have reached zero inventory; Second, the recent textile orders are more adequate, products with production and sales, less occupation of inventory. According to the coordination check of China Cotton bank, 46.4% of the enterprises whose yarn warehouse stock decreased on a month on month basis, and 50.49% of the enterprises whose cloth stock decreased on a month on month basis. The product inventory turnover rate was fast and the inventory pressure was small.

Business operation index

In November, the business index of the company was 49.92, the sales volume was basically stable and the profit was unsatisfactory. According to the data from the coordination survey of China Cotton bank, 40.86% of the surveyed enterprises said that the main business income increased, 36.38% of the surveyed enterprises said that the revenue decreased month on month; 36.24% of the surveyed enterprises said that the total profit increased month on month, and 42.33% of the surveyed enterprises said that the profit decreased month on month. According to the survey results, although the main business income has increased, the profit level is low due to the weak yarn price. In addition, the price fluctuation of raw materials has a certain impact on the profits of textile enterprises. In October, most of the raw materials used by textile enterprises were purchased in the early stage. The price of raw materials was relatively low and the profit was fair. With the rapid digestion of raw material inventory, most of the raw materials used in November were newly purchased raw materials, and the prices rose, while the prices of products did not keep pace with the increase, and the profits were reduced.

Enterprise confidence index

In November, the enterprise confidence index was 50.28, which is expected to be cautious and optimistic in the future. This month, the production and sales rhythm of textile enterprises is still stable. Although the order volume has declined compared with October, it still keeps sufficient and the product inventory is low. With the Spring Festival approaching, demand continues to release, and the heat of orders is expected to continue. Textile enterprises said that at present, the basic price of shipment, such as raw material prices continue to rise, will consider price increases. For the future, most textile enterprises are cautious and optimistic. At present, domestic consumption demand has recovered and is approaching the end of the year, and the increment of downstream replenishment is being released; overseas countries have launched economic stimulus plans to drive the sustained recovery of demand, and foreign trade orders have also recovered. However, the epidemic situation of new crown pneumonia abroad has not been effectively controlled, the foundation of economic recovery is relatively weak, and the spread of unilateralism and protectionism. Textile enterprises have a wait-and-see attitude towards the follow-up foreign trade orders.

Note: the prosperity index of China's cotton textile industry is collected from nearly 500 secondary cotton textile enterprises in China. Referring to the establishment methods of national manufacturing PMI and other indexes, it is concluded that when the index is higher than 50, it means that the prosperity degree of cotton textile industry in this month is better than that of last month; if it is lower than 50, it means that the prosperity degree of this month is lower than that of last month.