The Uncertain Factors Still Need To Be Resolved, And The "Double Cycle" Pattern Leads To High-Quality Development

      In the first three quarters of 2020, in the face of the huge impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the complex and severe domestic and foreign environment, China's textile industry continued to promote the resumption of production under the condition of normalized epidemic prevention and control, with steady improvement of production demand, smooth industrial circulation, gradual recovery of enterprise profits, and recovery of economic operation under pressure, so as to promote the stable development of the national economy and maintain the global textile industry The stable operation of the chain and supply chain and the support for epidemic prevention and control. However, the global economic and trade activities have not yet come out of the epidemic trough, and various unstable and uncertain factors such as trade friction and geopolitics have increased significantly. Under the condition of normalized epidemic prevention and control, the foundation for the sustained recovery of the textile industry still needs to be consolidated, and the sustained and stable development is facing great challenges.

1. The business climate of the industry kept expanding, and the growth rate of production picked up quarter by quarter

In the third quarter, the prosperity of the textile industry rebounded significantly and the utilization level of production capacity accelerated. According to the survey data of China Textile Industry Federation, in the third quarter of 2020, the prosperity index of textile industry was 61.5, 10.5 points higher than that of the second quarter, reaching the highest level since 2018. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the capacity utilization rates of the textile and chemical fiber industries in the first three quarters reached 72.4% and 79.1% respectively, up 2.1% and 2% compared with the first half of the year, but slowed down by 5.6% and 4% respectively compared with the same period of last year.

The decline in industrial production narrowed quarter by quarter. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of 2020, the added value of textile industry above designated size decreased by 4.6% year-on-year, the growth rate was 7.5% lower than the same period of last year, and increased by 11.9% and 2.1% respectively compared with the first quarter and the first half of this year. Among the main links of the industrial chain, the industrial textile industry, driven by epidemic prevention materials, continued the high-speed leading trend since this year. In the first three quarters, the industrial added value increased by 59.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.7% faster than that in the first half of the year. Under the support of market demand recovery, the added value of chemical fiber industry and filament weaving industry changed from negative to positive, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2% and 1.4% from January to September respectively. Due to the process of industrial chain transmission, the growth rate of terminal consumer goods production is still negative. From January to September, the industrial added value of clothing and home textile industry decreased by 10.6% and 3% respectively.

2. The domestic demand market continued to pick up and the export growth accelerated

Since the third quarter, the domestic demand market of textiles and clothing has gradually stepped out of the impact of the epidemic, showing signs of accelerating recovery. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of 2020, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear and textiles above the national quota decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, and the decline rate increased by 7.2 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. It has accelerated the integration of various types of textile and online fashion consumption, and promoted the in-depth integration of textile and e-commerce. In the first three quarters, the retail sales of online wear goods increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate turning from negative to positive since August, and the growth rate rose by 6.2 percentage points compared with the first half of the year.

Under the situation that the epidemic situation caused the international market to decline and the international supply chain was blocked, China's epidemic prevention and control took the lead in achieving positive results. Relying on a complete industrial chain, supply chain system and stable high-quality supply capacity, the textile industry not only made great efforts to ensure the supply of international anti epidemic materials, but also effectively made up for the gap in the international supply chain and met the consumption demand after the restart of the overseas economy The growth of the population has accelerated. According to the customs express data, China's textile and clothing export volume in the first three quarters was 215.78 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and the growth rate rose by 6.2 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Compared with the first half of the year, the export volume of textiles increased by 10.79% from the first half of the year, up by 10.79% compared with the first half of the year.

3. The profits of enterprises gradually recovered and the decrease of investment was narrowed

Under the influence of the demand for anti epidemic materials and the gradual recovery of domestic and foreign markets, the benefits of textile industry gradually recovered. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters, 34000 Textile Enterprises above Designated Size realized 3147.72 billion yuan of business income, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, and the decline rate was 13.3 and 4.3 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter and the first half of the year. The total profit was 126.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, a decrease of 32.2 and 6.9 percentage points respectively compared with the first quarter and the first half of the year. The profit margin of operating income of textile enterprises above designated size was 4%, which has returned to the level of the same period of last year, increased by 0.2 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Among them, the profitability of industrial textiles industry is outstanding. In the first three quarters, the operating income and total profit increased by 32.9% and 240.1% respectively year on year, and the profit margin of operating income reached 12.3%, ranking first in all major links of the industrial chain. The total profit of home textile industry also achieved positive growth, with an increase of 20.1% in the first three quarters and a profit margin of 5.1%, both higher than the average level of the whole industry.

Despite the trend of profit recovery, the production and operation pressure of textile enterprises is still great, and the operation quality has declined. The loss of textile enterprises above the national scale was 28.6%, and the loss of loss making enterprises increased by 43% year on year; the turnover rate of total assets and the turnover rate of finished products were 1 time / year and 11.5 times / year respectively, slowing down by 17.2% and 15.3% respectively on a year-on-year basis; The proportion of three fees was 7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the same period of last year.

As the recovery of national investment in textile industry has been stabilized, the effect has been obvious. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters, the completion of fixed assets investment in the textile industry decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 13.4% compared with the same period of last year, and increased by 6.9% compared with the first half of the year.

04. Uncertainties still need to be resolved, and the "double cycle" pattern leads to high-quality development

In the first three quarters of 2020, the textile industry overcame the adverse impact of the epidemic, and the main economic indicators gradually improved, laying the foundation for a stable recovery. However, from the fourth quarter to 2021, the development situation of the textile industry will still be complicated. From the external environment, the inflection point of global epidemic situation has not yet appeared and there is the possibility of rebound. The world economy is still in recession. The complex situation drives the adjustment and reconstruction of global textile industry chain and supply chain distribution pattern. The development of China's textile industry is facing multiple uncertain and unstable factors. From our own situation, although the domestic and foreign market demand has recovered, it has not returned to normal level, the pressure of enterprise production and operation has not been relieved, the development confidence is still insufficient, the negative growth trend of benefit and investment has not been reversed, and the foundation for maintaining stable and good development still needs to be consolidated.

On the whole, China's textile industry still has an important foundation and advantages for a sustained recovery. Under the background of the global epidemic "pandemic", China has made great achievements in epidemic prevention and control, and the macro-economy has taken the lead in recovery. The annual GDP is expected to exceed 100 trillion yuan, which will give full play to the advantages of the domestic super large-scale market for the textile industry, accelerate the release of consumption potential, and then form a benign domestic cycle of "enterprise profit recovery, residents' consumption improvement and investment confidence enhancement" Rings provide fundamental support for development. China's textile industry has a complete industrial system and stable high-quality supply capacity, which will play a more important role in the global textile industry chain and supply chain system. The policy effect of "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" will continue to show, which will further improve the business environment, reduce the burden on enterprises, stimulate the vitality of market players, and push the economic operation of the textile industry back to normal track.

      The textile industry will implement the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, continue to deepen the supply side structural reform, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the industry, strive to overcome the downward risk pressure, and maintain the basic stability of the economic operation. In order to implement the "six stability" work and the "six guarantees" task, we will continue to deepen the supply side structural reform, accelerate the industrial transformation and upgrading, and strive to overcome the downward risk pressure to maintain the basic stability of the economic operation To achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, to fight against poverty, and to open a new situation of high-quality development of the national economy during the "14th five year plan" period, we should make due contributions.