PTA: Is The Base Going On For A Period Of Strength?

With Han Bang Two hundred and twenty Ten thousand tons PTA Large devices unexpectedly stop, the polyester load is good, short term domestic PTA supply and demand is in a state of slightly out of stock, the spot circulation is tight, and some traders have replenishment needs. Last week, the structure of the current stage has been leveling off, and the base is changing. -100 element / Tons continue to strengthen to the present. -70 element / Is the expected period of structural reversal?                                   

Profit: As the cost side slipped, recently PTA The processing area has been keeping good. Four Beginning of the month Five The end of the month is basically maintained. Seven hundred element / Above the ton level, Five Since the end of the month, the processing area has continued to rise due to insufficient raw materials and growth. Six month One Daily reach Nine hundred and sixty-four element / Tons are the highest after the festival. PTA High inventory and high capacity, the processing area obviously needs to reduce the industry in order to achieve a good cycle.

Stock: High machining interval also stimulates PTA Production enterprises remain at a high level. Unless unexpected circumstances occur, most of the planned overhaul devices are delayed. Six June by Hon Bang petrochemical Two hundred and twenty Impact of unplanned parking on 10000 tonnes of equipment, mismatch between supply and demand, Six Monthly supply and demand is good. TA It is in a state of slightly out of storage. News now, Hon Bang petrochemical. Two hundred and twenty Million tonnes installed this month Eighteen Day or Seven Restart at the beginning of the month. Until the deadline, the domestic stock reaches Three hundred and fifty-five point nine nine Near 10000 tons, Five Towards the end of the month Nine Ten thousand tons, but the overall social inventory is still at a high level, and the price increases continue to be constrained.

Basis: suffer TA The weakening of supply and demand, the continued weak base of the post holidays, and the weakening of the base lead to the surge of futures stocks. In essence, it is strong demand weakness, resulting in a substantial accumulation of stocks, making futures a hedge for spot value. Recently, with Han Bang Two hundred and twenty In the short term, domestic supply and demand are in a slight state of storage, and the supply of goods in the spot is tight. In addition, some traders have demand for replenishment. Last week, the term structure was leveled off. -100 element / Tons continue to strengthen to the present. -70 element / Tons, and before the reopening of the Hon ban, TA It is still in the state of a small library, there is certain support for the spot basis, the basis or continue to strengthen the space, but PTA The pressure of social inventory is still relatively large, and the expected stage structure reversal is still more difficult. 5# Driving dynamics.

Conclusion: supply and demand: Profit driven Six Month overhaul is expected to be bad, and Hon Bang has plans this month. Eighteen Goods near Japan Seven Restarting large line device and constant force at the beginning of the month 5# Recently, there is a plan for driving, and the overall social inventory pressure has increased again. Six Month as the textile and clothing consumption in the off-season, terminal inventory has not yet been effectively digested, the enthusiasm of purchasing has been reduced, the polyester load continues to increase pressure is greater, recently, the circulation of goods is scarce and the basis is strong, but the pressure of social inventory is still large, and in the later period, there is still anticipation of continued inventory, and the structure of the expected period is hard to get out of the stage reversal.

Disk: The supply and demand and the basis are all handicap. PTA Up to now, there is an adjustment risk for short period crude oil near the notch. TA Cost and mindset drag; take into account PX Low processing fee has repair demand and less circulation. TA There are certain supports, suggestions. 09 The contract continues. 3800-3850 element / Near the tonne is short term pressure. Recently, new air can be held. Three thousand and five hundred element / Near the tonne, we should take a good step, roll up operations, not catch up and arbitrage. TA9-1 Still suitable for reverse logic, margin of safety. -100 element / Near the tonne.