Manufacturers Wait And See Attitude Polyester Staple Market Short-Term Stability

According to the price data of business associations, by August 27th, the average price of 1.4D polyester staple in the whole country was 7337 yuan / ton, down 10.40%, or 851 yuan / ton, down 34.70%, or 3899 yuan / ton. The price of the factory is almost the same as that in the range of 7250-7350 yuan / ton. Sinopec Yizheng chemical fiber is leading the country every time, and the settlement price is 7500 yuan / ton this month.

WTI crude has been falling for four consecutive days, and Brent has been down three days, due to uncertainties in Sino US trade disputes and the Iran issue, and crude oil futures in Europe and the United States have continued to decline. The United States will impose tariffs on imports of Chinese goods in September 1st, and China will also take the necessary counter measures. The escalation of disputes between China and the US will trigger global economic growth concerns. OPEC monthly report shows that in July, OPEC crude oil production declined by 246 thousand barrels to 29 million 610 thousand barrels per day, and OPEC lowered the expected growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2019 by 40 thousand barrels per day to 1 million 100 thousand barrels / day. The subsequent price trend of crude oil is not optimistic.

The PTA terminal has no obvious advantages. At present, the PTA social inventory is estimated at around 1 million 400 thousand tons. Recently, Yisheng 650 thousand ton plant in Ningbo has been shut down for a week in July 24th and restarted in August 23rd. The Yizheng chemical fiber 350 thousand ton plant has been shutdown for 40 days since August 1st. The 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hengli Dalian plant is scheduled to be overhauled for 15 days in August. Affected by the shutdown of most of the devices, the total inventory level remained small in August. However, many installations are still in operation at this stage. The 1 million 400 thousand tons of Hua Bin petrochemical company increased its load in August 20th, and the 650 thousand tons of Yangzi Petrochemical plant was overhauled in August 12th, and restarted after a week. In the short term, the installation load is still high, and at the present stage, the raw material stocking stock of polyester plant is high, so PTA has the risk of storehouse. It is not known whether the price of PTA will go up in the coming season.

Downstream polyester yarn Shandong area as of August 27th, 32S price of 15575 yuan / ton, down 0.54%, or 85 yuan / ton, down 6.32%, or 1050 yuan / ton. Manufacturers offer a serious polarization, mid end offer at 13500-13800 yuan / ton, high-end offer at 16300 yuan / ton. According to the survey, the pressure of textile mills is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, a single quantity is relatively small, many manufacturers do not have an order in August; second, the market mentality of the downstream grey market is more pessimistic, taking less goods, and still in the form of credit; third, the commonplace topic, the inventory backlog is serious, the cost of raw materials is falling, but the cost of yarn produced before is very high, so the situation is very embarrassing.

To sum up, business analysts believe that the upstream supply side is geopolitical and the political factors are volatile. People have become accustomed to Sino US trade issues. The downstream yarns are still in high inventory, cash flow problems are serious and orders are few. Textile people can only hope for the peak season in September. The current polyester staple manufacturers are wait-and-see attitude when offering quotations, and prices remain stable in the short term.