US Manufacturing Expansion Is Expected To Continue.

Because of the rebound in new orders and employment, the US manufacturing growth rate in May has been the best since February this year.

The latest figures show that the US manufacturing index has been expanding for 30 months, which is expected to continue for some time.

According to the report released by the ISM, the US ISM manufacturing index increased to 52.8 in May, which exceeded the 52 expected by economists and increased by 51.5 over April.

The manufacturing index remained unchanged at 51.5 points in March and April.

Of the 18 industries tracked by the American Supply Management Association, 14 industries grew in May, of which clothing and leather products grew the most.

Obviously, even if the dollar rose, it did not damage the growth of all sectors.

According to the sub index, the number of employment in manufacturing industry has also increased rapidly, with the highest employment rate since January this year, reaching 51.7.

As one of the forward-looking indicators of the employment report, the rise of this indicator means that the employment situation in the future is still promising.

It is gratifying to note that the employment indicators of 14 industries in 18 industries have risen. Only the employment indicators in the computer and electronic sectors have declined.

The new order sub item and the price payment index were also the highest since last December and last October.

Among them, the US new orders index rose to 55.8 in May, the highest since December last year.

In May, the price index rose to 49.5, the highest since October last year.

In addition, May ISM

The stock index rose to 51.5.

The export sub index remained above 50 of the neutral level when the dollar appreciated and global demand was not very strong.

Growth in demand from the United States is still faster than demand growth in other regions, which has prompted foreign companies to expand production in the United States.

Respondents surveyed by the American Association for supply management pointed out that the US economy is getting stronger and the number of jobs is increasing.

A machinery manufacturer said: "the port problem on the west coast has eased and imports have increased again."

Before the manufacturing index was released, the first quarter economic data released by the United States, due to the strong dollar, led to a decline in corporate profits, the first quarter of the United States.

The corrected value (annualized rate) is -0.7%, which is lower than the previous value of 0.2% and shrank.

The release of manufacturing data to eliminate the shadow of the poor growth of economic data also makes people expect the US economy to get rid of the gloomy first quarter in the second quarter of this year.

Michel Girard, chief American economist at Royal Bank of Scotland securities, said the data show that the pessimism of the US factory situation is overdone.

Some economists believe that data can be estimated.

There will be a rebound.

An economist who monitors the manufacturing index says that if other economic indicators can match, the latest manufacturing index means that the economic growth rate is likely to reach 3%.

What needs to be concerned is that in addition to the manufacturing industry index released by the American Association of supply management, Markit, a market research firm, also announced that in May, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 54 points from 54.5 in the previous month, but it exceeded the 53.8 points previously expected by economists.

In May, the growth rate of new orders hit the lowest level since January 2014.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: "this report provides further evidence that the strength of the US dollar is damaging the economy.

The decline in exports and the decline in corporate profits are two factors of weak economic performance in the first quarter and may be a drag on the second quarter economy.

Although the economy will rebound from the slide in the first quarter, the degree of economic recovery in the second quarter is still highly uncertain and may be disappointing.

Some analysts point out that the US manufacturing industry may face new consumption bottlenecks in the future.

In May, although the income figure increased by 0.4%, the savings rate increased from 5.2% to 5.6%, and disposable income increased 0.3% after inflation adjustment.

But according to the commerce department, there was little growth in personal consumption in the US in April.

It can be seen that even if the job market maintains momentum, the consumer mentality is still cautious.

Of course, from an optimistic perspective, data show that consumers still have the ability to increase spending.

Jim, chief American economist at High Frequency Economics, a global economic research institute, says manufacturing has begun to speed up, and if consumer spending is expected in April, improvements in manufacturing are difficult to be optimistic.

On Friday, the United States will also report on non farm payrolls in May.

If this figure is not ideal, then the US macroeconomic outlook may not be good.

However, from the current situation, this possibility is very low. Most people in the market expect this Friday's employment report to be strong.